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欧林生物(688319):破伤风疫苗保持平稳 研发投入加大影响利润端表现

Olin Biotech (688319): Tetanus vaccine remains stable, R&D investment increases, affects profit side performance

西南證券 ·  Aug 18, 2023 00:00

Event: the company released its semi-annual report for 2023, with an operating income of 230 million yuan, an increase of 0.2% over the same period last year; the net profit of shareholders belonging to the parent company was 29 million yuan, down 8% from the same period last year; and the net profit after deducting non-return was 20 million yuan, down 22.7% from the same period last year.

Tetanus vaccine remained stable, and increased investment in research and development affected profit-side performance. From a quarterly point of view, the company's 2023Q1/Q2 single-quarter revenue is 0.770 million yuan (+ 25% Universe 7.2%), and the quarterly return net profit is 0.044 trillion yuan (+ 157% Universe 35%). Among them, the decline in revenue in the second quarter was mainly due to the decline in the channels of tetanus vaccine blood products, and the decline in profits was mainly due to the company's continued increase in R & D investment and increased R & D costs, mainly due to the promotion of tetravalent influenza virus split vaccine (MDCK cells). In terms of profitability, the company's H1 gross profit margin in 2023 was 93% (+ 0.5pp) and net profit rate was 11.3% (- 2pp). The decline in net profit rate is similar to the above reasons. The sales expense rate is 43.9% (- 0.5pp). The rate of management expenses during the company period is 14.2% (+ 0.7pp). The R & D expenditure rate is 17.8% (+ 4.3pp), and major companies have increased their R & D investment.

The company issued an equity incentive plan to demonstrate long-term development confidence. The number of restricted shares to be granted under this incentive plan is 6.2 million, accounting for 1.53% of the company's total share capital of 405.265 million shares at the time of the announcement of the draft incentive plan.

A total of 202 people will be encouraged, accounting for 44.8% of the company's total employees, including directors, senior managers, core technicians, middle managers and core backbone. The performance evaluation target for 2023-2025 is that the operating income is RMB 886 billion respectively, and the year-on-year growth rate is 26%, 28% and 35% respectively, which further demonstrates the long-term development momentum of the company.

Staphylococcus aureus vaccine has officially entered the clinical III phase and is expected to be available in 2025. The company's recombinant staphylococcus aureus vaccine clinical III phase has completed the first injection in August 2022, and the product is expected to be on the market in 2025. It is estimated that about 1.34 million people will be operated on closed fractures in China in 2030, and 80% of them will be vaccinated. After the products are put on the market, it is expected that the company will increase its performance quickly. At the same time, the company's Staphylococcus aureus vaccine is expected to be exported to overseas markets as a global innovation in the future, strengthening the company's international influence.

Profit forecast and rating. We expect the net profit from 2023 to 2025 to be 74 million yuan, 130 million yuan and 230 million yuan respectively, and the EPS is 0.18,0.32 and 0.57 yuan respectively, maintaining the "buy" rating.

Risk tips: sales may fall short of expectations; the risk of deterioration of the competition pattern; and the risk that the progress of the products under development is not as expected.

The translation is provided by third-party software.


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