INTRON TECH(1760.HK):1H23E PREVIEW:STRONG GROWTH DESPITE INDUSTRY HEADWINDS; EXPECT BACK-LOADED IN 2H23E
INTRON TECH(1760.HK):1H23E PREVIEW:STRONG GROWTH DESPITE INDUSTRY HEADWINDS; EXPECT BACK-LOADED IN 2H23E
Attractive risk/reward, reiterate BUY. We trimmed FY23-25E EPS by 4- 7% mainly to reflect higher R&D expenses and slower traditional business.Our new TP of HK$7.01 is based on same 12x FY23E P/E (24% below 5- year hist. avg.). Trading at 8.2x/6.0x FY23/24E P/E, we think risk-reward is attractive especially compared with A/H share peers. Catalysts include rising ADAS penetration and share gain in NEV clients.Intron Tech will announce its 1H23 results next week. We estimate 1H23E revenue of RMB 2.66bn (+28% YoY) and net income of RMB 191mn (+25% YoY). The solid growth was mainly due to strong NEV shipment and rising penetration of auto electrification/intelligence, partly offset by OEM price pressure, weaker cloud server and higher R&D expenses. Looking ahead, we expect a back-loaded 2H23E driven by seasonality, new product ramps and better operating leverage. We slightly trimmed FY23-25E EPS by 4-7% to factor in slower traditional business and higher R&D expenses. Trading at 8.2x/6.0x FY23/24E P/E, we think the risk-reward is very attractive compared with A/H share peers. Maintain BUY with new TP of HK$ 7.01. Upcoming catalysts include rising ADAS penetration and NEV client share gain.
英恒科技將於下週公佈其上半年業績。我們估計，1H23E 收入爲26.6億元人民幣（同比增長28％），淨收入爲1.91億元人民幣（同比增長25％）。穩健增長主要是由於新能源汽車出貨量強勁以及汽車電氣化/智能化滲透率的提高，但部分被整車廠價格壓力、雲服務器疲軟和研發費用增加所抵消。展望未來，在季節性、新產品上市和更好的運營槓桿率的推動下，我們預計 2H23E 將出現負荷過重。考慮到傳統業務放緩和研發費用增加，我們將 FY23-25E 每股收益略微下調了4-7％。我們認爲，與A/H股同行相比，風險回報率爲8.2倍/6.0倍，我們認爲風險回報非常有吸引力。維持買入，新目標價爲7.01港元。即將到來的催化劑包括ADAS滲透率的提高和新能源汽車客戶份額的增長。
1H23E preview: solid growth despite challenging market condition. We estimate 1H23E revenue RMB 2.66bn (+28% YoY) and net income of RMB 191mn (+25% YoY). By segment, we expect revenue from new energy/ body control/ safety/ powertrain/ automation & connectivity to deliver 55%/ 25%/ 25%/ 30%/ 100% YoY while cloud server declined 60% YoY, given NEV client share gain, ADAS penetration and new product ramp, slightly offset by cloud server business weakness from key customers. We expect 1H23E GPM to remain largely flattish at 21.0%, despite price pressure from downstream OEM customers.
1H23E 預覽：儘管市場條件充滿挑戰，但仍實現穩健增長。我們估計，1H23E 收入爲26.6億元人民幣（同比增長28％），淨收入爲1.91億元人民幣（同比增長25％）。按細分市場劃分，鑑於新能源汽車客戶份額增長、ADAS滲透率和新產品增長，我們預計來自新能源/車身控制/安全/動力總成/自動化和連接的收入將同比增長55％/25％/25％/30％/100％，而云服務器同比下降60％，但主要客戶的雲服務器業務疲軟略有抵消。儘管下游原始設備製造商客戶面臨價格壓力，但我們預計 1H23E GPM仍將基本持平至21.0％。
Outlook: expect back-loaded 2H23E and moderate downstream price competition. We expect Intron's topline to be back-loaded in 2H23E driven by traditional seasonality and new product ramp, and we expect moderate impact from downstream auto OEM price competition and de-spec trend.With cost-plus pricing strategy and economies of scale of R&D resources, we believe Intron will continue to deliver stronger-than-industry growth backed by market share gain, design wins and robust product pipeline.Overall, we estimate revenue/net profit growth of 45%/40% YoY in 2H23E.
展望：預計 2H23E 將出現倒退，下游價格競爭溫和。我們預計，在傳統的季節性和新產品增長的推動下，英恒的收入將在 2H23E 中倒退，我們預計下游汽車原始設備製造商的價格競爭和不合格趨勢將產生適度的影響。憑藉成本加定價策略和研發資源的規模經濟，我們相信英恒將繼續實現強於行業的增長，這要歸功於市場份額增長、設計勝利和強勁的產品渠道。總體而言，我們估計收入/淨利潤增長45％/ 2H23E 同比增長40％。
Attractive risk/reward, reiterate BUY. We trimmed FY23-25E EPS by 4- 7% mainly to reflect higher R&D expenses and slower traditional business.Our new TP of HK$7.01 is based on same 12x FY23E P/E (24% below 5- year hist. avg.). Trading at 8.2x/6.0x FY23/24E P/E, we think risk-reward is attractive especially compared with A/H share peers. Catalysts include rising ADAS penetration and share gain in NEV clients.
有吸引力的風險/回報，重申買入。我們將 FY23-25E 每股收益下調了4-7％，主要是爲了反映研發費用增加和傳統業務放緩。我們的7.01港元的新目標基於同樣的12倍 FY23E 市盈率（比5年平均水平低24％）。我們認爲風險回報率爲2.2倍/6.0倍，特別是與A/H股同行相比，風險回報具有吸引力。催化劑包括ADAS滲透率的提高和在新能源汽車客戶中的份額增長。
譯文內容由第三人軟體翻譯。
