CYD: Outlook Remains Uncertain After Strong First Half Results
CYD: Outlook Remains Uncertain After Strong First Half Results
H1:23 Outperforms On Product Mix Skewing Towards Heavy Duty. CYD reported first half results with Revenue of RMB 9.2 billion, an improvement from the year ago period despite unit sales falling from 180,911 to 165,793. The increase in Revenue was tied to heavy duty trucks making up a greater portion of the product mix, which also positively impacted Gross Margins, which improved to 16.9%. The Company saw significant increases in demand from buses and new energy vehicles, the latter of which accounted for 1,319 units in the period. SG&A increased RMB 144.9 million, to RMB 894.5 million, while R&D expenses were flat at RMB 406.0 million. Operating Income for the period was RMB 387.7 million, just above our estimate. The biggest surprise from the release was the Share of Associates and Joint Ventures line item, which posted a multi-year high of RMB 29.6 million, on a return to profitability at MTU Yuchai and Y&C Engine Co. due to the higher heavy duty sales and sales in the power generation markets. Net Profit for the first half was RMB 178.3 million, or 4.37 per share, in line with our estimate.
H 1:23 在產品組合中表現優於重型。CYD公佈的上半年業績收入爲92億元人民幣，儘管銷量從180,911輛降至165,793輛，但與去年同期相比有所改善。收入的增長與重型卡車在產品組合中佔更大比例有關，這也對毛利率產生了積極影響，毛利率提高至16.9％。該公司看到公交車和新能源汽車的需求大幅增長，後者在此期間佔1,319輛。銷售和收購增加了1.449億元人民幣，至8.945億元人民幣，而研發費用持平至4.06億元人民幣。該期間的營業收入爲人民幣3.877億元，略高於我們的預期。此次發佈的最大驚喜是聯營企業和合資企業份額創下2,960萬元人民幣的多年新高，這要歸因於MTU Yuchai和Y&C Engine Co. 恢復盈利，這要歸因於發電市場的重型汽車銷售和銷售額增加。上半年的淨利潤爲1.783億元人民幣，合每股4.37美元，符合我們的預期。
AGM Vote. On August 7, all items put to vote at its AGM were passed, with nothing on the slate that was out of the ordinary.
股東周年大會投票。8月7日，所有在股東周年大會上付諸表決的項目都獲得通過，名單上沒有什麼不尋常的。
Model Update. As noted in our last update, we remain cautious on commercial vehicle sales and the economy in general in China for the second half of the year and into 2024. As such, we are making no changes to our unit sales assumptions. We did make minor tweaks to line items below Gross Profit, but the net result was a small change to our earnings estimates.
模型更新。正如我們在上次更新中所指出的那樣，我們對下半年和2024年中國的商用車銷量和總體經濟狀況仍持謹慎態度。因此，我們對單位銷售假設沒有做出任何改變。我們確實對低於毛利的細列項目進行了細微調整，但最終結果是我們的收益預期略有變化。
Maintaining Rating & Target. With no significant changes to our model and uncertainty regarding the Chinese economy, we are maintaining our Buy rating and $15.00 target price on China Yuchai. Our target price is based on the average of a P/E multiple of roughly 10 times our forward twelve month diluted EPS estimate of RMB 8.48 and an EV/EBITDA multiple of roughly 5 times our forward twelve month EBITDA estimate of RMB 1,258.9 million.
維持評級和目標。由於我們的模式沒有重大變化以及中國經濟的不確定性，我們維持對中國玉柴的買入評級和15.00美元的目標價。我們的目標價格基於市盈倍數的平均市盈倍數約爲8.48元人民幣的遠期十二個月攤薄每股收益估計值人民幣8.48元，EV/EBITDA倍數約爲我們預計的12個月息稅折舊攤銷前利潤12.589億元人民幣的5倍。
譯文內容由第三人軟體翻譯。