Items:
The company issues its 2023 half-yearly report. 23H1, the company's income is 1.489 billion yuan (- 63%), and the return profit is 335 million yuan (- 72%). 23Q2, the company's income is 657 million yuan (- 53%), and the return profit is 131 million yuan (- 52%).
Comments:
The overall income of infectious disease detection business has declined, but the income of conventional business has shown a restorative growth. 23H1, the company's infectious disease business income of 428 million yuan, down 86.67% from the same period last year. However, the routine detection of infectious diseases, such as respiratory tract detection, digestive tract infectious disease detection, blood infectious disease detection, etc., recovered and increased significantly during the reporting period. At the same time, the spread of influenza in 23H1 has also led to a substantial increase in sales revenue of the company's influenza testing products.
The demand side of chronic disease management and testing business has been released, and domestic and export sales have increased synchronously. 23H1, the company's chronic disease management and testing business income of 718 million yuan, an increase of 40.3% over the same period last year. On the domestic business side, the trend of diagnosis, treatment and repair in the 23H1 hospital market is obvious, and the number of terminal outpatients and testing samples in the hospital have significantly recovered and increased compared with the same period of 22 years. The company's domestic chronic disease management and testing business has benefited from the concentrated release of the accumulated medical demand of 23H1. On the international business side, with the recovery of demand in 23H1's overseas chronic disease market, the company's overseas market revenue has also achieved rapid growth compared with the same period last year.
The drug testing business continues to focus on the expansion of the US market. 23H1, the company's drug (drug abuse) testing business income of 164 million yuan, an increase of 18.11% over the same period last year. During the 23H1 period, the company strengthened the construction of the US drug inspection market, continuously strengthened the R & D capability of the US team and the construction of the marketing system, and insisted on using consultative sales to guide dealers and end customers. In addition, the company continues to open up the local supply chain in the United States to increase the local production capacity of its core products and reduce operating costs while improving operational efficiency.
The construction of business channels for eugenics and parenting testing has been steadily advanced. 23H1, the company's eugenic testing business income of 134 million yuan, an increase of 5.50% over the same period last year. During the 23H1 period, the company continues to promote channel construction. At the domestic end, while focusing on ovulation testing products and increasing investment in ovulation testing and gender health testing products, the company continues to strengthen the cooperative relationship among major e-commerce platforms and optimize channel capacity and resource acquisition capacity.
For O2O and domestic new media platforms, the company promotes the establishment of a cooperative relationship of high-quality resources on the premise of finding breakthroughs and projects. On the international side, while steadily promoting overseas eugenic business and speeding up the development and iteration of pregnancy series products, the company focuses on building core dealers and promoting global channel layout.
Profit forecast, valuation and investment rating. The recovery of the company's regular business is higher than expected. We estimate that the company's revenue for 23-25 is 30.7,37.6 and 4.6 billion yuan respectively (the original forecast for 23,24 and 25 is 28.4,36.3 and 4.6 billion yuan). The year-on-year growth rates were-46.0%, + 22.5% and + 22.2%, respectively. The company's 23-25 return net profit was 6.1,7.6 and 960 million yuan respectively (the original forecast for 23,24,25 years was 5.3,6.8 and 860 million yuan), and the year-on-year growth rate was-49.2%, + 25.5% and + 25.7% respectively. The PE was 1.37,1.72,2.16 yuan respectively, and the corresponding EPS was 20,16 and 12 times respectively. According to the DCF model, the overall valuation of the company is 17.4 billion yuan, the corresponding target price is about 39 yuan, and the "recommended" rating is maintained.
Risk tips: 1, overseas revenue is not up to expectations; 2, chemiluminescence and other new technology platforms are not up to expectations.