TOWNGAS SMART ENERGY(01083.HK):STABLE OPERATION WITNESSES LONG-TERM VALUE
TOWNGAS SMART ENERGY(01083.HK):STABLE OPERATION WITNESSES LONG-TERM VALUE
Towngas Smart Energy reported 1H23 revenue of HK$9.88bn (-3% YoY) and operating profits of Rmb742m(+4% YoY) and of HK$835m (-3% YoY) owing to exchange rate changes. Influenced by the company's net gain of HK$600m from the exit of Shanghai Gas, the net profit attributable to the parent was HK$1.115bn (+7% YoY), basically in line with our expectations.
由於匯率變動，Towngas Smart Energy公佈的2023年上半年收入爲98.8億港元（同比下降3％），營業利潤爲人民幣7.42億元（同比增長4％）和8.35億港元（同比下降3％）。受公司退出上海燃氣後淨收益6億港元的影響，歸屬於母公司的淨利潤爲11.15億港元（同比增長7％），基本符合我們的預期。
Gas sales volume grew steadily, connection business dragged down the profitability. In 1H23, the company added three new city gas projects and exited the Shanghai gas project, the total number of city gas projects reached 185. The number of customers added 430k to 16.36mn.
天然氣銷量穩步增長，連接業務拖累了盈利能力。23年上半年，公司新增三個城市燃氣項目，退出上海燃氣項目，城市燃氣項目總數達到185個。客戶數量增加了43萬，達到1636萬。
Benefiting from 6% growth in industrial gas, which accounted for the largest share, and high growth of 37% in other distribution and power station consumption, the total gas sales volume rose steadily to 8.23bn m3 (+9% YoY) in 1H23. However, affected by the lower-than-expected connection business and the sharp rise in HKD exchange rate, connection business revenue fell by about 20%, and gas business net profit declined by 9.3% YoY to HK$832m.
受益於佔最大份額的工業氣體增長6％，以及其他配電和電站消費量增長37％，天然氣總銷量穩步增長至23年上半年82.3億立方米（同比增長9％）。然而，受低於預期的連接業務和港元匯率大幅上漲的影響，連接業務收入下降了約20％，天然氣業務淨利潤同比下降9.3％，至8.32億港元。
Dollar margins increased slightly and may continue to increase. The dollar margin of gas sales in 1H23 reached Rmb0.50/m3 (+Rmb0.01/m3 vs 2H22). Residential gas and commercial gas prices increased by Rmb0.03/m3 and Rmb0.24/m3 respectively. Due to the sale of some large- scale industrial gas at a discount, industrial gas price dropped by Rmb0.04/m3, and the company's dollar margin in 1H23 is flat with 1H22. The company lowered its full-year dollar margin guidance from Rmb0.52 to Rmb0.51/m3. For source structure, the three-barrels, LNG and others accounted for 87%/9%/4% respectively. The company plans to join with its parent company to broaden source procurement channels and raise more than 5mt of gas after 2025 to reduce the comprehensive purchase cost. In 2H23, we believe that the company will benefit from the improvement of residential price-through and the optimisation of gas sales structure, and we expect the dollar margin to improve in 2H23.
美元利潤率略有增加，並可能繼續增加。23年上半年天然氣銷售的美元利潤率達到人民幣0.50/立方米（+0.01元/立方米對22年下半年）。住宅用氣和商業用氣價格分別上漲了0.03元人民幣/立方米和0.24元/立方米。由於一些大型工業氣體以折扣價出售，工業用氣價格下降了0.04元/立方米，該公司在23年上半年的美元利潤率與2022年上半年持平。該公司將其全年美元利潤率預期從0.52元人民幣下調至0.51元/立方米。在來源結構方面，三桶、液化天然氣和其他燃料分別佔87％/ 9％/ 4％。該公司計劃與其母公司合作，擴大源頭採購渠道，並在2025年後籌集超過500萬噸的天然氣，以降低綜合採購成本。在23年下半年，我們相信該公司將受益於住宅價格的改善和天然氣銷售結構的優化，我們預計下半年美元利潤率將有所提高。
Net gain of HK$600m recognised on exit from Shanghai Gas project. On May 23rd, the company signed an agreement with Shanghai Gas and Shenergy Group. On August 2nd, the company received the transaction consideration payment of Rmb4.66bn. The company recognised a net gain of HK$600m from the exit of Shanghai Gas while continuing cooperative relationships in resource acquisition, value-added business, and renewable energy business.
退出上海燃氣項目後，淨收益爲6億港元。5月23日，公司與上海燃氣和申能集團簽署協議。8月2日，該公司收到了46.6億元人民幣的交易對價。該公司確認上海燃氣退出後淨收益爲6億港元，同時在資源收購、增值業務和可再生能源業務方面保持合作關係。
Slow down the pace of installation to ensure high-quality and sustainable development. By the end of the 1H23, the company has signed a cumulative installed capacity of 2.2GW, of which 1.2GW is grid-connected. When the downstream industrial and commercial users still have operation pressure and the global financing cost remains high, the company insists on the return rate of projects and pays more attention to high-quality development, strengthening the collaborative effect of PV installation and energy-carbon service to bind high-quality downstream customers in depth. The company lowered its full-year PV installation guidance, planning for a cumulative grid-connected 2.3GW by the end of 2023(-0.7GW than before), while guaranteeing a PIRR of 9%. Renewable energy business achieved a net profit of HK$3m in 1H23. Following the processing of the double carbon policy, we believe that the PV installation has high certainty in a long-term boom. The company can choose to cooperate with the capital side to reduce the financial risk and superimpose on the energy carbon services and other light asset operations to enhance the comprehensive rate of return of projects.
放慢安裝速度，確保高質量和可持續發展。到23年上半年末，該公司已簽署了2.2GW的累計裝機容量，其中1.2GW是併網的。在下游工商業用戶仍面臨運營壓力，全球融資成本居高不下的情況下，公司堅持項目回報率，更加註重高質量發展，強化光伏安裝和節能碳服務的協同效應，深度綁定優質的下游客戶。該公司下調了全年光伏安裝指引，計劃到2023年底累計併網2.3GW（比以前-0.7GW），同時保證PIRR爲9％。可再生能源業務在2013年上半年實現了300萬港元的淨利潤。在處理了雙碳政策之後，我們認爲光伏安裝在長期繁榮時期具有很高的確定性。公司可以選擇與資本方合作以降低財務風險，併疊加能源碳服務和其他輕資產運營，以提高項目的綜合回報率。
Maintain BUY. Considering the company's exit from the Shanghai gas project confirmed in 2023 to recognize revenue, while the dollar margin recovery is less than expected, the short- term decline of the connection business, the new energy grid-connected installation slowed down, we raise our profit forecasts from HK$1.35bn to HK$1.64bn in 23E, cut profit forecasts from HK$1.73bn to HK$1.69bn in 24E and from HK$2.01bn to HK$18.8bn in 25E. The stock is trading at 6.9x 23E PE, 6.6x 24E PE and 5.9x 25E PE. We maintain our BUY rating.
維持買入。考慮到該公司已於2023年確認退出上海天然氣項目以確認收入，而美元利潤率的回升低於預期，連接業務的短期下滑，新能源併網安裝放緩，我們將23E的利潤預期從13.5億港元上調至16.4億港元，24E的利潤預期從17.3億港元下調至16.9億港元，25E的利潤預期從20.1億港元下調至188億港元 E。該股的交易價格爲6.9倍23E，市盈率爲6.6倍，市盈率爲5.9倍25E。我們維持買入評級。
Risks. Rise of gas purchase price; slower-than-expected grid-connected capacity ramp-up.
風險。天然氣購買價格上漲；併網容量增長速度低於預期。
譯文內容由第三人軟體翻譯。