Core point of view: the company's 23-year annual report performance is in line with expectations, cableway is still the main performance contribution point, the hotel business part of the profit, Yulong Snow Mountain tourism boom is expected to continue in the second half of the year.
Maintain earnings forecasts and maintain "overweight" ratings. The company's 23H1 realized operating income of 392 million yuan, an increase of 396.88% over 22H1, and realized a net profit of 121 million yuan, an increase of 326.48% over 22H1, which fell near the median of the performance forecast. The second-quarter results were in line with expectations. 23Q2's revenue was 212 million yuan, the highest in a single quarter since the listing of Q2. The net profit of Q2 was 66 million yuan, an increase of 4.76% over 19Q2. We maintain our previous forecast that the company's 25-year operating income is estimated to be 769, 814, 000,000 yuan, an increase of 143%, 6%, 7%, and a net profit of 2.57, 282, and 297 million, corresponding to PE 22.8, 20.8, and 19.7x.
Rating.
The ropeway business contributes to the core performance, and the recovery of the performance business lags behind slightly. The income of 23H1 ropeway business is 195 million yuan, an increase of 22.64% over 19H1. The gross profit margin was 85.60%, an increase of 2.85pct over 19H1. The three ropeways received a total of 3.0066 million tourists, an increase of 43.06% over 19H1. Among them, Yulong Snow Mountain / Yunyuanping / Yuniuping cableway received 1,63.48 122.20 hectare tourists respectively (the daily average was 0.90pm 0.68mm 0.08 million), which increased by 10.56% 127.69% and 73.58% respectively compared with 19H1. The low increase in the number of passengers on the Yulong Snow Mountain cableway is due to the limited supply and the shortage of ropeway tickets for many days. Spruce Ping and Yuniuping cableway can better undertake the passenger flow in the scenic area and have greater income elasticity. The performance business 23H1 achieved an operating income of 76 million yuan, an increase of 0.27% over 19H1, and a gross profit margin of 61.81%, which was lower than that of 19H1 by 4.56pct. The impression was that Lijiang had a total of 347 performances, with an average of 1.92 per day, 3 performances less than 19H1, and the recovery of the performance business lagged slightly.
The hotel business performed well, and Hefu hotel company 23H1 turned a loss into profit. The income of 23H1 hotel business is 79 million yuan, an increase of 57.05% over 19H1, with a gross profit margin of 22.59%. Benefiting from the better passenger flow after the epidemic, part of the hotel business turned from loss to profit. Among them, Lijiang Hefu Hotel Co., Ltd. (including Continental Hotel, Indigo Hotel, Ancient City Lishi Hotel, 5596 Shopping Street, Lishishan residence) 23H1 realized operating income of 64 million yuan, an increase of 24.51% over 2019H1, a net profit of 988200 yuan, and a loss of 9.5278 million yuan for 19H1. Diqing Shambala Tourism Investment Co., Ltd. (including Diqing India Hotel, Benzilan Lishi Hotel, Shangri-La Lishi Hotel) 2023H1 achieved an operating income of 14 million yuan, an increase of 139.40% over 2022H1, a net profit loss of 14.4972 million yuan, and a loss of 2.2262 million yuan less than 22H1. The company's layout of the hotel is mainly in the middle and high end, and it is still expanding against the trend during the epidemic, and is expected to show better performance flexibility in the future.
Ganhaizi tourist distribution center put into operation to enhance the tourism experience, Lijiang Yulong Snow Mountain is expected to continue in the second half of the year. According to the company announcement, the Ganhaizi tourist distribution center project was put into trial operation on July 3, 2023, and the newly completed tourist distribution center will replace the original tourist center as the core transportation hub in the Yulong Snow Mountain Scenic area. further optimize the ferry and ropeway queues in the Yulong Snow Mountain Scenic area to improve the tourist experience.
In terms of passenger flow, 23H1 Yulong Snow Mountain has a high tourism boom, receiving a total of 3.37 million people, an increase of 486% over 22H1 and 46% over 19H1, making it the scenic spot with the largest number of people buying tickets to the park in Yunnan Province. Considering that the summer vacation is the peak tourist season of Yulong Snow Mountain, and the eight-day Mid-Autumn Festival holiday this year, the prosperity is expected to continue in the second half of the year.
Risk tips: (1) the risk of natural disasters; (2) the risk of change of control; (3) the risk that the hotel is unable to make a profit.