Bond Market Braces For July CPI Data: A Test Of Fed's Control Over Inflation
Bond Market Braces For July CPI Data: A Test Of Fed's Control Over Inflation
The bond market's anticipation of long-term U.S. inflation is nearing its highest level in over a year, suggesting that the Federal Reserve might grapple with high inflation rates for an extended period.
債券市場對美國長期通脹的預期已接近一年多來的最高水平，這表明 美聯儲 可能會在很長一段時間內努力應對高通貨膨脹率。
As the market awaits the upcoming consumer price index figures, a pivotal long-term inflation predictor indicates a trend towards 2.5%. This is close to its apex in April 2022, which was the most elevated since 2014, as Bloomberg reported on Wednesday
在市場等待即將公佈的消費者物價指數數據之際，一個關鍵的長期通脹預測指標表明通脹將走向2.5％。據彭博社週三報道，這已接近2022年4月的頂點，這是自2014年以來的最高水平
This predictor, known as the 5-year/5-year forward inflation breakeven rate, offers insight into how bond investors project the average annual inflation over a five-year period, starting five years from now.
這個預測指標被稱爲5年期/5年期遠期通脹盈虧平衡率，它讓人們深入了解債券投資者如何預測從現在起五年後的五年期內的平均年通貨膨脹率。
Chart: Market-Based Inflation Expectations Are On The Rise
圖表：基於市場的通脹預期正在上升
This increase in the bond market's inflation gauge contradicts the widely held belief that the Fed's aggressive interest rate hikes will contain the biggest increase in consumer prices since the 1980s.
債券市場通脹指標的提高與人們普遍持有的信念相矛盾，即美聯儲的激進加息將遏制自1980年代以來最大的消費者價格漲幅。
It is also in stark contrast with current traders expectations suggesting an 85% likelihood of the Fed maintaining rates unchanged in September and a 70% probability of the central bank doing that also in November. Fed futures already anticipate the first rate cut in March 2024.
這也與當前交易者的預期形成鮮明對比，即美聯儲在9月份維持利率不變的可能性爲85％，而央行在11月也這樣做的可能性爲70％。美聯儲期貨已經預計將在2024年3月首次降息。
Forecasts for this week's consumer price index report project a 3.3% annual growth in July, the first uptick since June 2022.
對本週消費者物價指數報告的預測預計，7月份的年增長率爲3.3％，這是自2022年6月以來的首次上漲。
The core inflation, excluding fluctuating food and energy costs, is predicted to dip marginally from 4.8% to 4.7%.
核心通貨膨脹率，不包括波動的食品和能源成本，預計將從4.8％小幅下降至4.7％。
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立即閱讀： 消費者價格指數通脹數據週四公佈：5只ETF有可能出現瘋狂的市場波動
This content was partially produced with the help of AI tools and was reviewed and published by Benzinga editors.
該內容部分是在人工智能工具的幫助下製作的，並由Benzinga編輯審查和發佈。
Photo: Shutterstock
照片：Shutterstock
譯文內容由第三人軟體翻譯。