Adhere to digital upgrading and transformation, performance is expected to continue to recover, maintain the "buy" rating
I love my family as a real estate agent leader, vigorously develop the "apartment" business, diversified industrial layout to contribute to the continuous repair of performance. In 2022, the company will strengthen direct management, increase investment in research and development, adhere to digital upgrading and transformation, and consolidate future business resilience. Affected by the downturn in the real estate sales market, we estimate that the company's revenue from 2023 to 2025 will be 125.4 yuan, 134.8 yuan and 14.49 billion yuan respectively (the original value in 2023 is 18.71 billion yuan), an increase of 7.4%, 7.5% and 7.5% over the same period last year. The net profit of homing mother was 1.3,2.2 and 330 million yuan (the original value in 2023 was 790 million yuan), which increased by 143.7%, 64.1% and 50.7% respectively. The diluted EPS is 0.06,0.09,0.14 yuan respectively (the original value in 2023 is 0.34), and the current stock price corresponds to PE of 56.4,34.3,22.8 times. In view of the fact that the company is deeply engaged in urban services, the core business maintains steady growth, and performance is expected to continue to recover, so it maintains a "buy" rating.
The brokerage business is strengthened, and the market share is expected to further increase.
The market has gradually changed from new housing to stock housing, and there is a broad space for the development of real estate brokerage business. The company's GTV of 2019-2021 increased from about 340 billion yuan to about 430 billion yuan, and its market share (the size of brokerage transactions nationwide by the company GTV/) also increased from 3.3% to 3.4%. In 2022, as downmarket companies focused on direct marketing, GTV shrank to about 260 billion yuan, and revenue fell 2.4% compared with the same period last year. However, the leading real estate brokerage industry represented by I love my family has a large scale and strong bargaining power, and its market share is expected to further increase after the market resumes.
Business development is expected, and digital transformation strengthens industry barriers.
In 2022, the revenue of the apartment business reached 5.65 billion yuan, up 75.3% from the same period last year, and the proportion of revenue rose from 15.5% to 48.4%. In the overall downward year of the market, the business has shown excellent operational resilience and anti-risk ability.
At the same time, the company insists on digital transformation and develops the core business system of CBS (Brokerage platform system) / AMS (Residential Asset Management system), which effectively solves the problem of linkage and coordination among rooms, customers, people, stores and business lines.
The rental rate of housing is stable to 94%, the average out-of-room time is 9.4 days, and all operational indicators are in a leading position in the industry.
The net profit turned from loss to profit, and the sales fee decreased year by year.
The loss situation of the company was reversed in 2023. In the first quarter, the net profit turned to a profit and loss of 50 million yuan, and the gross profit margin and net profit rate rebounded to 14.5% and 1.6%, respectively. The company focused on reducing costs and increasing efficiency, and the sales cost rate dropped from 19.9% in 2021 to 14.1% in 2022, and 2023Q1 also dropped 1.7 percentage points to 15.5% compared with the same period last year.
Risk hint: the macroeconomic recovery is not as good as expected and the scale of industry sales is not as expected.