TONGDA(698.HK)1H23 PREVIEW:WEAK REVENUE AMID INDUSTRY HEADWINDS; EXPECT SMARTPHONE RECOVERY IN 2H23E
TONGDA(698.HK)1H23 PREVIEW:WEAK REVENUE AMID INDUSTRY HEADWINDS; EXPECT SMARTPHONE RECOVERY IN 2H23E
Tongda will announce its 1H23 results in late Aug. We expect 1H23 revenue decline of 26.4% YoY and flattish net profit due to smartphone weakness and inventory correction, but GPM will improve 3.5ppts QoQ on share gain of higher- margin Apple business. Looking into 2H23E, we are positive on smartphone recovery and Apple share gain to drive revenue growth and GPM improvement. We revised down our FY23-24E EPS to reflect 1H23 weakness and higher opex, partly offset by improved GPM on better product mix. Our new TP of HK$ 0.19 is based on rolled-over 6.0x FY24E P/E. Trading at 4.2x/3.0x FY23/24E P/E, we think the stock has attractive risk/reward. Maintain BUY.
通達將在8月下旬公佈其23年上半年的業績。由於智能手機疲軟和庫存調整，我們預計上半年收入將同比下降26.4％，淨利潤持平，但由於利潤率較高的蘋果業務的股價增長，GPM將環比提高3.5個百分點。展望 2H23E，我們對智能手機的復甦和蘋果的股價上漲持樂觀態度，以推動收入增長和GPM的改善。我們下調了 FY23-24E 每股收益，以反映 23 年上半年的疲軟和更高的運營支出，但由於產品組合改善，GPM 的改善部分抵消了這一點。我們的新目標價爲0.19港元，基於展期6.0倍 FY24E 市盈率。我們認爲該股具有吸引力的風險/回報，交易價格爲4.2倍/3.0倍。維持買入。
1H23E preview: revenue/NP of -26.4%/+1.8% YoY; Improving GPM on better product mix. Given smartphone weakness, inventory correction and high base in 1H22, we expect handset revenue to decline 28% YoY in 1H23E. Despite inflationary pressure on European & US consumer demand and inventory adjustment in 1Q23, we expect household and sports goods segment revenue to grow 20% YoY in 1H backed by stronger orders from IKEA and Decathlon. Network communications' revenue would drop 47% YoY given weak business in 1H23. We expect GPM to climb 3.5ppts to 18.5% driven by better product mix and share gain of high-margin Apple products. Overall, we expect 1H revenue to decline 26.4% YoY but net profit to grow 1.8% YoY on better GPM.
1H23E 預覽：收入/淨值同比爲-26.4％/+1.8％；產品組合改善後，GPM有所改善。鑑於2022年上半年智能手機疲軟、庫存調整和高基數，我們預計 1H23E 手機收入將同比下降28％。儘管通貨膨脹壓力給歐洲和美國消費者需求帶來了壓力，而且在23第一季度進行了庫存調整，但我們預計，在宜家和迪卡儂訂單增加的支持下，家居和體育用品板塊的收入將在上半年同比增長20％。鑑於2023年上半年業務疲軟，網絡通信的收入將同比下降47％。我們預計，由於產品組合的改善以及蘋果高利潤產品的份額增長，GPM將攀升3.5個百分點至18.5％。總體而言，我們預計上半年收入將同比下降26.4％，但由於GPM改善，淨利潤將同比增長1.8％。
2H23E outlook: Smartphone recovery to drive better revenue/GPM. Looking into 2H23E, we expect revenue to grow 10% YoY mainly driven by smartphone business recovery (~75% of total sales). For handset business, we expect Android recovery and steady ASP given easing competition. We also expect new iPhones' casing material upgrade from metal to aluminium to drive ASP/GPM upside in 2H23E. In addition, we remain positive on household and sport goods biz spin-off and capacity expansion to drive better sales/profitability. Network communications & others will benefit from chip shortage ease and Wifi-7 launch in 2H23E. Overall, we estimate 2H23 revenue/net profit to grow 10%/59% YoY, and GPM to improve to 19.9% in 2H23 (vs 15.0% in 2H22) driven by better product mix.
2H23E 展望：智能手機的復甦將帶來更好的收入/GPM。展望 2H23E，我們預計收入將同比增長 10%，這主要得益於智能手機業務的復甦（約佔總銷售額的 75%）。在手機業務方面，鑑於競爭緩和，我們預計Android將復甦，ASP將保持穩定。我們還預計，新款 iPhone 的外殼材料將從金屬升級爲鋁，這將推動 2H23E 的 ASP/GPM 上漲。此外，我們對家居和體育用品業務的分拆以及產能擴張持樂觀態度，以推動更好的銷售/盈利能力。網絡通信和其他方面將受益於芯片短缺的緩解以及 2H23E 的 Wifi-7 推出。總體而言，我們預計，在產品組合改善的推動下，下半年收入/淨利潤將同比增長10％/59％，下半年的GPM將提高到19.9％（而2022年下半年爲15.0％）。
Attractive risk/reward; Maintain BUY. We lowered FY23/25E revenue by 1-2% to reflect weaker handset business but revised up FY23-24E GPM for higher Apple sales mix. Our new TP of HK$0.19 is based on rolled over 6.0x FY24E PE. Trading at 4.2x/3.0x FY23/24E P/E (10-year low), we think the stock has attractive risk/reward. Maintain BUY.
有吸引力的風險/回報；維持買入。我們將23/25E財年的收入下調了1-2％，以反映手機業務疲軟，但由於蘋果銷售組合的增加，我們上調了 FY23-24E GPM。我們的新目標價爲0.19港元，基於6.0倍的 FY24E 市盈率。我們認爲該股的交易價格爲2.2倍/3.0倍的23/24財年市盈率（10年低點），我們認爲該股具有誘人的風險/回報。維持買入。
譯文內容由第三人軟體翻譯。