MELCO INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENT LTD.(0200.HK):2Q RESULTS IN-LINE; NEW PROPERTY OPENING LEVERED TOWARDS STRONG SUMMER SEASON TRAFFIC
MELCO INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENT LTD.(0200.HK):2Q RESULTS IN-LINE; NEW PROPERTY OPENING LEVERED TOWARDS STRONG SUMMER SEASON TRAFFIC
Investment Thesis
投资论文
2Q23 Melco's operating revenue slightly exceeds expectations: Net revenue was
23年第二季度新濠的营业收入略高于预期：净收入为
USD947.9m (+32% q-o-q) to 64.5% of 2Q19 level, slightly surpassing the Bloomberg consensus estimate by 3%, and of which non-gaming revenue accounted for 18.9% (+6.8 pct vs 2Q19). Adjusted property EBITDA was USD267.3m (+40% q-o-q) to 59.7% of 2Q19 level, implying 28.2% margin (-2.4pct vs 2Q19 but +1.6pct q-o-q). We see EBITDA margin to continue expanding with continued ramp-up of mass market traffic and rising contribution from higher-margin non-gaming businesses.
9.479亿美元（环比增长32％）至2019年第二季度水平的64.5％，略高于彭博社的共识估计的3％，其中非博彩收入占18.9％（与2019年第二季度相比增长6.8％）。调整后的房地产息税折旧摊销前利润为2.673亿美元（环比增长40％），为2019年第二季度水平的59.7％，这意味着利润率为28.2％（与2019年第二季度相比为-2.4个百分点，但环比增长1.6个百分点）。我们预计，随着大众市场流量的持续增加以及利润率更高的非博彩业务的贡献增加，息税折旧摊销前利润率将继续扩大。
Macau gaming recovery in line with the industry: 1) In Macau, the gross gaming
澳门博彩业的复苏与行业一致：1) 在澳门，博彩总额
revenue (GGR) of three main properties was USD860m in 2Q23 to 62.6% of 2Q19 level, outpacing the 2Q Macau market recovery by 0.6pct. VIP and mass market (including slot machines) GGR was USD177/682m, which were respectively 31.8% and 83.6% of 2Q19 levels, slightly trailing the industry average by 3.3pct/2.4pct (vs 5.8pct/5.5pct in 1Q19).
三家主要物业的收入（GGR）在23年第二季度为8.6亿美元，为2019年第二季度的62.6％，比第二季度澳门市场的复苏速度高出0.6个百分点。VIP和大众市场（包括老虎机）的GGR为177/6.82亿美元，分别为2019年第二季度水平的31.8％和83.6％，略低于行业平均水平3.3个百分点/2.4个百分点（而2019年第一季度为5.8个百分点/5.5个百分点）。
We believe the faster recovery can be attributed mainly to the gradual ramp-up of Studio City Phase II, which has driven a 1.5pct/1.4pct increase in the company's VIP/mass market share compared to 1Q23. Additionally, with the peak summer season arriving, Melco's market share is expected to further improve with the newly added non-gaming facilities such as the indoor water park. 2) Regarding overseas operations, the GGR of CoD Manila was USD126m to 60.1% of 2Q19 level and the GGR of the Cyprus properties (including CoD Mediterranean and three satellite casinos) was 137.1% of 2Q19 level.
我们认为，更快的复苏主要归因于Studio City第二阶段的逐步增加，这使该公司的VIP/大众市场份额与23年第一季度相比增长了1.5个百分点/1.4个百分点。此外，随着夏季旺季的到来，随着室内水上乐园等新增加的非博彩设施，新濠的市场份额预计将进一步提高。2）在海外业务方面，CoD Manila的GGR为2019年第二季度水平的1.26亿美元至60.1％，塞浦路斯房产（包括CoD Mediterraneary和三个卫星赌场）的GGR为2019年第二季度的137.1％。
Sustained ramp-up of Studio City during the peak summer season: 1) In 2Q23, room revenue recovered to 92.7% of 2Q19 level as the occupancy rate of Epic Tower (opened in April) was above 90% while other properties achieved occupancy rates above 80%. With the anticipated opening of W Hotel in September, providing an additional 12.9% (560 rooms) of room capacity, we expect the company's room revenue in 3Q23 to surpass that in 3Q19. 2) We attribute the high growth in entertainment & retail revenue (161% of the 2Q19 levels) was primarily due to the significant contribution from the indoor and outdoor water parks and concerts. The company plans to host 90 concerts over the next three years and will reintroduce the large-scale performance, 'The House of Dancing Water,' which is expected to sustain high growth in the non-gaming business. 3) Opex up from USD2.0m to USD2.4m in 2Q23, and is expected to stabilize at USD2.5m after the opening of W Hotel in 3Q23 (vs USD3.0m in 2019). This 20-25% permanent cost savings can be translated into 200bps margin.
在夏季旺季，Studio City的持续增长：1）在23年第二季度，由于Epic Tower（4月开业）的入住率超过90％，而其他物业的入住率则达到80％以上，客房收入恢复至2019年第二季度的92.7％。W 酒店预计将于9月开业，额外提供12.9％（560间客房）的客房容量，我们预计该公司在2013年第三季度的客房收入将超过2019年第三季度的水平。2）我们将娱乐和零售收入的高增长（占2019年第二季度水平的161％）归因于室内和室外水上乐园和音乐会的巨大贡献。该公司计划在未来三年内举办90场音乐会，并将重新推出大型演出《水舞之屋》，预计该演出将维持非博彩业务的高增长。3) 运营支出从200万美元增加到23年第二季度的240万美元，预计在23年第三季度W Hotel开业后将稳定在250万美元（而2019年为300万美元）。这20-25％的永久成本节省可以转化为200个基点的利润。
Earnings Forecast & Rating: We maintain our net revenue forecasts as of HKD32.8/ 38.8/43.4bn for 2023-2025 and our 2023-2025 adjusted property EBITDA forecasts as of HKD9.0/11.7/13.8bn, corresponding to 2023-2025 EV/adjusted property EBITDA of 9x/ 7x/6x. We maintain a 'Buy' rating.
收益预测和评级：我们维持2023-2025年净收入预测为32.8港元/38.8/434亿港元，维持2023-2025年调整后的房地产息税折旧摊销前利润预测为9.0/117/138亿港元，相当于2023-2025年EV/调整后的房地产息税折旧摊销前利润为9倍/7x/6倍。我们维持 “买入” 评级。
Risk: Slower-than-expected recovery in Macau's tourism, tighter-than-anticipated mainland visa policies, and diversion of gambling demand to overseas markets.
风险：澳门旅游业的复苏低于预期，内地签证政策比预期的要紧，赌博需求转移到海外市场。
译文内容由第三方软件翻译。