Event: the company issued the 2023 half-year report that H1 realized income of 824 million yuan in 23 years, an increase of + 15.7% over the same period last year; net profit of 89 million yuan,-24.1% over the same period last year; and deduction of non-return net profit of 77 million yuan,-22.3% of the same period last year.
Comments:
Differential products continue to volume, income to maintain rapid growth. On the revenue side, the export business revenue in the first half of the year was 110 million yuan, + 43% year-on-year; the differential business income was + 97%; and the commercial vehicle heavy truck business income was + 68%. From a quarterly point of view, 23Q2 achieved revenue of 450 million yuan, + 47.1% year-on-year, + 17.7% month-on-month, and net profit of 46 million yuan, + 28% year-on-year, and + 7.0% month-on-month.
Capacity construction is a drag on gross profit margin, and Q3 profitability is expected to improve. In terms of profitability, the 23-year Q2 gross profit margin is 29.4%, year-on-year-9.6pct, month-on-month-2.5pct; net profit rate is 10.2%, year-on-year-10.8pct, month-on-1.2pct. The decline in profitability is mainly due to the high fixed cost of differential amortization, changes in the product structure of aviation business settlement, a substantial increase in financial expenses, and so on.
Build motor shaft capacity and increase the size of new energy business. The company plans to raise 550 million yuan for the project "Construction of key parts production Base of New Energy vehicles", invest in the construction of motor shafts for new energy vehicles, enrich the company's new energy vehicle related products, and improve the layout of the existing automobile industry. The company expects the construction of the plant to be completed in the third quarter of this year, and will begin to install and debug related equipment.
Profit forecast: the company is the leading automotive synchronizer leader in China, with the gradual expansion of new energy vehicles and aerospace parts in the previous layout, the performance is expected to grow rapidly; in addition, the company is building a precision electric planetary deceleration mechanism project for new energy vehicles that can be used in the robot field. We expect the company's 2023-2025 net profit to be 2.54,3.58 and 443 million yuan, corresponding to 17, 12 and 10 times PE respectively, maintaining a "buy" rating.
Risk factors: raw material price fluctuations, capacity release is not as expected, customer development is not as expected, matching model sales are not as expected, and the progress of the construction project of key parts production base of new energy vehicles is not as expected.