维持“增持” 评级，维持57.44 元目标价。公司业绩如期恢复，电池和汽车制造设备业务取得显著进展，两项业务营收同比增速均超过100%。考虑到公司在手订单达近29 亿元，其中近半将于年内确认，同时新产品开发成功后有望持续获单，北美市场需求将逐渐释放，预计2023-2025 年EPS 分别为1.27（-0.81）/1.90（-1.10）/2.59（-1.73）元，维持57.44 元目标价，维持“增持”评级。This report is read as follows:
Breakthroughs in new products superimposed on the North American market are progressing smoothly. 2023H1's net profit deducted from non-homing has increased by 172% compared with the same period last year. Nearly half of the orders of 2.9 billion yuan will be confirmed in 2023H2, and the company's performance is expected to continue to improve.
Main points of investment:
Maintain the "overweight" rating and maintain the target price of 57.44 yuan. The company's performance recovered as scheduled, and significant progress was made in the battery and automobile manufacturing equipment business, with revenue growth of more than 100% year-on-year in both businesses. Considering that the company's order-on-hand amounts to nearly 2.9 billion yuan, of which nearly half will be confirmed during the year, while new product development is expected to continue to receive orders, North American market demand will be gradually released, it is estimated that EPS in 2023-2025 will be 1.27 (- 0.81) / 1.90 (- 1.10) / 2.59 (- 1.73) respectively, maintaining the list price of 57.44 yuan and maintaining the "overweight" rating.
Breakthroughs have been made in batteries and automobile manufacturing equipment, and the performance of 2023H1 has increased. The company successfully developed flat line motor stator assembly line and 4680 full-pole ear large cylindrical assembly line products, and obtained orders from BYD and other first-line customers, battery manufacturing equipment and automobile manufacturing equipment business achieved revenue of 0.97 million YoY+127%/174% respectively. With the landing order of the new product, the company's 2023H1 realized revenue of 714 million yuan (YoY+97%) and non-return net profit of 30 million yuan (YoY+172%).
Deep layout of the North American market, performance cashing to improve the company's gross profit margin performance. The company began to expand its automobile manufacturing equipment business in the North American market in 2019. Under the background of the US government promoting the return of the industry, 2023H1 achieved overseas revenue of 104 million yuan (YoY+44%); overseas gross profit margin of 46.7%, higher than the domestic 20.88pct, improving the company's overall gross profit margin performance.
Under the policy stimulation, the new power exchange operators are expected to enter the market, and the company's brand advantage is expected to be fully demonstrated.
Changing power stations has the attributes of both consumption and infrastructure, which is the focus of the policy in the near future. Under the stimulation of the policy, the new power exchange operators are expected to continue to enter the market, while the company, as a third-party exchange equipment provider with brand advantages, will become the first choice for the new operators and is expected to continue to receive orders, and considering the short delivery cycle of the exchange power station, the company's exchange power station business will usher in marginal improvement in 2023H2.
Risk hint: the long single landing is short and the rhythm is lower than expected; the release pace of the demand for the exchange power station is slow.