MOBVISTA INC.(1860.HK):EYES ON UPSIDE FROM ROAS MODE
MOBVISTA INC.(1860.HK):EYES ON UPSIDE FROM ROAS MODE
We expect Mobvista's 2Q23E results to be moderate, with solid profit (estimated at US$6.02mn) but mild rev growth (forecasting rev +14% YoY, vs. previous estimate of +22%). The high interest rate environment limits ads budget from game developers in 1H23E. Looking ahead, we expect stronger momentum in 2H23E (forecasting rev >30% YoY growth), backed by:1) ROAS mode with enhanced algorithm to attract midcore & hardcore game ads budget; and 2) further upside from deeper cooperation with Google. We are positive on its long- term margin improvement, with narrowing loss of Reyun, higher ads efficiency and lower incentives. We keep our earnings forecast unchanged. Maintain BUY with SOTP-based TP at HK$6.3 (1.2x/1.0x FY23/24E P/S, or 58x/40x FY23/24E P/E, with 31% earnings CAGR in FY23-25E).
我们预计，Mobvista的 2Q23E 业绩将保持温和，利润可观（估计为602万美元），但收入将温和增长（预计同比增长14％，而之前的估计为+22％）。高利率环境限制了游戏开发商在 1H23E 中的广告预算。展望未来，我们预计，2H23E（预计同比增长将超过30％）势头强劲，这得益于：1) 采用增强算法的 ROAS 模式以吸引中核和硬核游戏广告预算；2) 与谷歌的深化合作将带来进一步的上行空间。我们对Reyun的长期利润率提高持乐观态度，包括减少Reyun的损失，更高的广告效率和更低的激励措施。我们保持盈利预测不变。维持买入，基于止损标准的目标价为6.3港元（23/24财年市销率为1.2倍/1.0倍，或23/24财年市盈率58倍/40倍，FY23-25E 年盈利复合年增长率为31％）。
Expecting solid earnings in 2Q23E despite ads headwinds. After a solid start in 1Q23, we expect 2Q23E rev to accelerate (forecasting rev +14% YoY).The growth should be slightly moderate (vs. previous estimate of +22%), mainly due to: 1) shrinking ads budget from long-tail game developers in challenging macro and high-interest-rate environment, as developers focus more on existing games and in-app purchase monetization; and 2) limited contribution from Google cooperation in early stage. However, we expect bottom line to remain intact at US$6.02mn in 2Q23E (implying adj. NPM at 2.4%), for its higher efficiency and better cost control (e.g. cloud expenses).GPM should improve sequentially to 19.7% in 2Q23E (+0.5ppts QoQ), supported by better targeting and enhanced algorithm.
尽管存在广告不利因素，但预计 2Q23E 的收益将保持稳健。在 23 年第一季度稳健开局之后，我们预计 2Q23E 的增长将加速（预计同比增长 14%）。增长应该略为温和（之前的估计为 +22%），这主要是由于：1）随着开发者更多地关注现有游戏和应用内购买获利，长尾游戏开发商的广告预算在充满挑战的宏观和高利率环境中萎缩；2) 谷歌合作在早期阶段的贡献有限。但是，我们预计，2Q23E 的底线将保持不变，达到602万美元（含调整后）。由于NPM的效率更高，成本控制更好（例如云支出），为2.4％）。在更好的定位和增强的算法的支持下，2Q23E（季度环比增长0.5个百分点）的GPM应连续提高至19.7％。
High visibility for 2H23E to accelerate with ROAS mode and cooperation with Google. We expect Mobvista to deliver stronger momentum in 2H23E (forecasting rev >30% YoY growth), boosted by: 1) further upside from deeper cooperation with Google, and 2) algorithm optimization in in-app purchase of ROAS mode to attract rising budget from midcore & hardcore games.Mintegral rev accelerated in Jul, with strong game season. Midcore and hardcore games vertical would continue to climb up, in our view. In terms of margin, we keep full-year forecast unchanged (adj. NM at 2.1% in FY23E). In the long run, Mobvista would benefit from AIGC initiatives (e.g. XMP tools), to optimize ads efficiency with rich formats and stronger analytics capability.
2H23E 通过 ROAS 模式和与谷歌合作加速的知名度很高。我们预计，Mobvista将在 2H23E 中提供更强劲的势头（预计同比增长超过30％），这得益于：1）与谷歌深化合作带来的进一步上行空间，以及2）应用内购买ROAS模式的算法优化，以吸引中核和硬核游戏的预算增加。Mintegral在7月份加速，游戏季表现强劲。我们认为，纵向中核和硬核游戏将继续向上攀升。在利润率方面，我们维持全年预测不变（调整后）NM 在 FY23E 中为 2.1%）。从长远来看，Mobvista将受益于AIGC的举措（例如XMP工具），通过丰富的格式和更强的分析能力来优化广告效率。
Maintain BUY. We maintain our financials forecast unchanged, with TP at HK$6.3 (by assigning 30x FY23E P/E to ad-tech biz and 3.3x FY23E P/S to mar-tech biz).
维持买入。我们维持财务预测不变，目标股价为6.3港元（将广告科技业务的 FY23E 市盈率定为30倍，将FY23E 市盈率分配给海事科技业务3.3倍）。
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