BINJIANG SERVICE(3316.HK)1H23 PREVIEW:HIGH GROWTH SECURED BY VISIONARY STRATEGY
BINJIANG SERVICE(3316.HK)1H23 PREVIEW:HIGH GROWTH SECURED BY VISIONARY STRATEGY
We expect the company to continue delivering higher-than-peers results in 1H23E with 32% YoY growth in NP, driven by robust GFA & revenue growth (both >35% YoY), mostly supported by reserved-GFA & unbooked revenue prepared in advance thanks to its visionary strategy which predicted the worse- than-expected market in 1H23E. NP grew slower than revenue as GP margin is estimated to decline 3ppt to 28%, given less contribution from non-owner VAS with higher margin, which leads to a healthier revenue structure in our view.Considering the company's high growth (+30% earnings CAGR in 22-25E) backed by longtermism-seeking strategy, its clear and heathier VAS structure, beneficial regional focus, strong and stable parentco as well as attractive valuation (10/8x 2023/24E), we reiterate BUY and keep TP unchanged at HK$35.8. The company remains our top pick in PM companies. Catalysts: 1H23 results; Stock Connect inclusion.
我們預計，在強勁的GFA和收入增長（均超過35％）的推動下，該公司將繼續在 1H23E 中實現高於同業的業績，NP同比增長32％，這主要得益於其遠見卓識的策略，預測 1H23E 的市場將低於預期。NP的增長速度低於收入，因爲GP利潤率估計將下降3個百分點至28％，這要歸因於非所有者VAS的貢獻較少，利潤率更高，這導致了更健康的收入結構。考慮到該公司的高增長（22-25E的收益複合年增長率爲+ 30％），其清晰而健康的增值稅結構，有利的區域重點，強勁而穩定的母公司以及有吸引力的估值（10/8x 2023/203）24E），我們重申買入並維持目標價不變，爲35.8港元。該公司仍然是我們在PM公司的首選。催化劑：上半年業績；納入股票互聯互通。
Managed-GFA & revenue growth both secured by early preparation.Despite the increasingly intensified competition in the field of third-party expansion especially in existing projects, we expect company to achieve 38% YoY managed-GFA growth (to 49mn sq m) in 1H23E thanks to 1) stable GFA delivery from strong parent-co Binjiang Group who ranked No.7 nationally by delivering 6.5 units in 1H23. 2) The company has stored sufficient reserved-GFA in FY22 to avoid predicted growing competitive threats in 1H23 (reserved-GFA +37% YoY in FY22 vs. 28% YoY in FY21).The segment revenue is expected to grow +39% YoY to RMB 7.4mn in 1H23E as high contract liability in FY22 (up 5x YoY) was meant to be converted to revenue in FY23 for coping with difficult environment.
管理建築面積和收入增長都得益於早期的準備。儘管第三方擴張領域的競爭日益激烈，尤其是在現有項目中，但我們預計公司在 1H23E 中將實現38％的管理總建築面積同比增長（達到4900萬平方米），這要歸功於1）強大的母公司濱江集團穩定的建築面積交付，該公司在2013年上半年交付了6.5個單位，在全國排名第七。2) 該公司在財年儲存了足夠的儲備建築面積 22 以避免預計的2023年上半年競爭威脅將增加（22財年Reserved-GFA同比增長37％，而21財年同比增長28％）。1H23E 的收入預計將同比增長 39%，達到 740 萬元人民幣，這是因爲 22 財年的高額合同負債（同比增長 5 倍）旨在在 23 財年轉化爲收入，以應對困難的環境。
Healthier VAS structure at the expense of margin contraction. The company is reducing non-owner VAS business to cut down influence from the broad prop market but with strong sales of its parentco, we expect the segment revenue to go up by ~20% YoY in 1H23E. For 5S VAS, both house brokerage and household services performed weaker than expected as the macro environment recovered slowly. On the contrary, home decoration business will deliver significant growth in 1H23E as it is at the expanding stage and had not much contribution in 1H22 which led to a very low base. We expect >2.3x YoY revenue growth of 5S VAS (to RMB 217mn) in 1H23E. With more contribution from 5S VAS and less from non-owner VAS, overall GP Margin is like to decline by 3ppt to 28.4% (flat from FY22) in our estimate as margin for 5S VAS is at 40-42% or less, (home decoration business at 20-30%) and that for non- owner VAS is at 45%.
以犧牲利潤收縮爲代價，更健康的增值稅結構。該公司正在減少非所有者增值業務以減少來自廣泛道具市場的影響力，但由於其母公司銷售強勁，我們預計 1H23E 該細分市場的收入將同比增長約20％。對於5S VAS而言，由於宏觀環境緩慢復甦，房屋經紀和家庭服務的表現均低於預期。相反，家居裝飾業務將在 1H23E 中實現顯著增長，因爲它正處於擴張階段，在 22 年上半年貢獻不大，這導致基數非常低。我們預計，在 1H23E 中，5S VAS 收入將同比增長超過 2.3 倍（至 2.17 億元人民幣）。根據我們的估計，由於5S VAS的利潤率爲40-42％或更低（家居裝飾業務爲20-30％），非所有者VAS的利潤率爲40-42％或更低（家居裝飾業務爲20-30％），而非所有者VAS的利潤率爲45％，因此總體GP利潤率將下降3個百分點至28.4％（與22財年持平）。
Good cash flow management: Many peers are facing longer cash collection days due to slow recovery of macro environment, while Binjiang Services was affected less than others as it focuses on high-end projects with less PM fee delay. The company will keep its leading position of having the smallest AR/revenue ratio in our view (18% in FY22 vs. avg. of 40% for 11 top tier PM companies).
良好的現金流管理：由於宏觀環境恢復緩慢，許多同行面臨更長的現金收款天數，而濱江服務受到的影響小於其他同行，因爲它專注於PM費用延遲較少的高端項目。在我們看來，該公司將保持其領先地位，即其AR/收入比率最低（22財年爲18％，而11家頂級PM公司的平均收入爲40％）。
Top pick in PM sector, maintain BUY. Considering company's high growth (30% 22-25E earnings CAGR) backed by longtermism-seeking strategy, its clear and heathier business structure which leads to less connected transaction, beneficial regional focus with >60% managed GFA concentrated in Hangzhou, strong and stable parentco that ranked as Top 10 developer by sales in 1H23, we reiterate our BUY rating and keep TP unchanged at HK$35.8, representing 16x 2023E PE. The company is trading at an attractive valuation of 10/8x 2023/24E. Catalysts: 1H23 results, Stock Connect inclusion. Risk: worse-than-expected property market.
PM板塊的首選，維持買入。考慮到公司的高增長（收益複合年增長率爲30％22-25E），其清晰而健康的業務結構導致了更少的關聯交易，有利的區域重點管理GFA集中在杭州，強勁而穩定的母公司在23年上半年按銷售額排名前十的開發商，我們重申買入評級，將目標價維持在35.8港元，相當於2023年的16倍市盈率。該公司的交易估值極具吸引力，爲2023/24E的10/8倍。催化劑：上半年業績，納入港股通。風險：房地產市場低於預期。
譯文內容由第三人軟體翻譯。