share_log

云南能投(002053)深度报告:竞争优势铸就高成长 盈利高增序曲初升

Yunnan Energy Investment (002053) In-depth Report: Competitive Advantages Create High Growth, High Profit Growth, High Profit Growth, Beginning to Rise

國泰君安 ·  Jul 21, 2023 20:02

This report is read as follows:

Under the internal and external joint efforts, the company's new energy business has the core competitive advantage, and the performance explosion period is coming.

Main points of investment:

Maintain the "overweight" rating: the company's performance burst period is approaching, maintaining 2023-2025 EPS 0.60max 0.99max 1.12 yuan. Maintain the target price of 16.52 yuan and maintain the "overweight" rating.

Competitive advantage is the driving force for growth, and the outbreak of performance is coming. The market believes that the company's new energy installation planning is difficult to complete and the profit level of incremental new energy projects is low, and the new energy business is difficult to support the rapid growth of the company's performance; we believe that under the combined effect of the urgent demand for new energy development in Yunnan Province and the improvement of the company's internal governance level, the new energy business will drive the company's profitability to grow continuously.

Unique information and logic: 1) the supply and demand of electricity in Yunnan Province is tightening during the 14th five-year Plan, and the installation of new energy will become the main force to solve the gap in electricity demand in Yunnan Province. most of the electricity of new energy projects in Yunnan Province have locked in the benchmark price of coal, the downside risk of electricity price is low and the cost of capacity adjustment is limited (about 3.6% of the benchmark price of coal in Yunnan Province). The development of new energy in the province has entered the prime time. 2) Neng Investment Group is positioned as the main force in the development of Yunnan green energy industry (planning to add 20 GW of new energy in 3 years). As the final undertaking platform of the group's new energy business, the company is expected to benefit from the new round of state-owned enterprise reform in Yunnan Province. 3) the company's new energy business has a core competitive advantage under internal and external resonance. The company's installed capacity and accelerated growth since 2023 are the data representation of the company's inherent competitive advantage at the financial and operational levels. During the 14th five-year Plan period, the company's installed growth and the profitability of new projects have strong certainty.

Catalyst: the approval and construction of new energy projects accelerate the landing, and the financial performance of the project is better.

Risk tips: electricity demand is lower than expected, Yunnan grid electricity price is not as expected, salt salt business operation is not as expected, asset acquisition progress and plan are not as expected, and so on.

The translation is provided by third-party software.


The above content is for informational or educational purposes only and does not constitute any investment advice related to Futu. Although we strive to ensure the truthfulness, accuracy, and originality of all such content, we cannot guarantee it.
    Write a comment