Domestic comprehensive high-end equipment manufacturing platform, with one-stop delivery capability. The company is a leading enterprise of wind power spindle, with a complete manufacturing chain of "smelting / electroslag remelting, casting / forging / welding, heat treatment, machining, design and manufacture of large sets of equipment, painting". It is the only enterprise in China that can supply wind power forgings (spindle), castings (spindle, hub, frame) and structural parts (rotor shell, stator base) at the same time. With the support of the state-owned controlling shareholder Zhuhai Port Group, the capital strength is enhanced, the financial cost is reduced, and the level of governance is improved. Based on the ability of comprehensive manufacturing platform, the company realizes diversified product layout and is the leader of pipe mold market in China. Nuclear waste disposal, solid state hydrogen storage and other business reserves for many years are expected to contribute to performance increment.
Wind power industry: from cycle to growth, the growth potential is huge. According to GWEC's Global Wind Energy Market Outlook 2021-2025, global offshore wind power capacity is expected to grow from 6.1GW in 2020 to 23.9GW in 2025, with an average annual compound growth rate of 31.41%. At present, the record system of wind power project in our country is on the ground, and the demand of "large base + wind power going to the countryside + transformation of old wind turbines" on land supports the medium-and long-term installation boom, and the installation of Haifeng in China during the 14th five-year Plan is expected to break through 60GW. The wind turbine is moving towards the gearbox era, benefiting from the increase in the proportion of doubly fed + semi-direct drive models, and the spindle link is anti-deflationary. We expect the global wind power spindle consumption to increase from 421714 tons to 600923 tons in 2022-2025, with a CAGR of 12.5%. The spindle market is expected to reach 6.61015 billion yuan in 2025, with a broad space.
In line with the trend of cost reduction in the industry, wind power is committed to "large-scale, lightweight and modular". The company is committed to the development trend of large-scale wind turbine and continuous cost optimization. In November 2022, the company will realize the offline production of the world's first 9MW wind power forging spindle; based on the synergistic advantages of large-scale casting capacity and machining experience, it is one of the first companies in China to cut into the field of wind power casting spindle, and has achieved batch delivery to Xinjiang Goldwind Science & Technology, Sany Energy and other complete machine manufacturers. The project of the world's first 70,000-ton heavy die forging press suitable for large wind power spindles has begun and is expected to significantly reduce manufacturing costs. In addition, the company has moved forward to the lower reaches of the industrial chain, has built two modular assembly bases in Texas and Qingdao, and has successively cooperated with Dongfang Motor, Ende, Yunda, etc., and assembled 435 wind turbines in 2021, an increase of 79% over the same period last year. Under the background of wind power parity, the trend of reducing cost and improving efficiency in the industry is obvious, and we are optimistic about the continuous enhancement of the advantages of the company's comprehensive manufacturing platform for wind power parts.
Investment suggestion: as an integrated parts supplier of wind power forging and casting, the company benefits from the large-scale, modularization and industry concentration of wind power equipment. Diversified product layout makes the business not excessively dependent on the prosperity of a downstream market, has the ability to resist risk, develops steadily, the dividend level and dividend rate industry is in the forefront, and the long-term allocation value is prominent. it is estimated that the 23 -, 24-and 25-year net profit is 4.73,6.82 and 875 million yuan respectively, and the EPS is 0.12,0.17,0.22 respectively, covering for the first time. Give a "buy" rating.
Risk hints: macroeconomic fluctuation risk, wind power policy fluctuation risk, raw material price fluctuation risk, operation and management risk, other force majeure risk