Items:
Company announcement: the company issued a half-year performance forecast for 2023, with an estimated net profit loss of 5.6-680 million yuan in the first half of 2023, compared with a loss of 670 million yuan in the same period last year. Among them, the company 2023Q1 lost 180 million yuan, and 2023Q2 is expected to lose 3.8-500 million yuan. The gross profit margin of the company's feed business increased compared with the same period last year, and the number of pig farmers was 2.9235 million, an increase of 24.73% over the same period last year. However, due to the persistently low pig prices in the first half of 2023, the company's pig farming sector was at a loss; at the same time, for the consumptive biological assets up to the end of June 2023, the provision for inventory price decline is based on the principle of prudence.
Guoxin agricultural point of view: 1) Aonong Biology issued a half-year performance forecast for 2023, which is expected to return to its mother in the first half of 2023 with a net profit loss of 5.6-680 million yuan, compared with a loss of 670 million yuan in the same period last year. Among them, the company 2023Q1 lost 180 million yuan, and 2023Q2 is expected to lose 3.8-500 million yuan. The number of pigs produced by the company expanded steadily, and the number of pigs raised by 2023H1 reached 2.9235 million, an increase of 24.73% over the same period last year. 2) the company announced in July 2023 that it intends to introduce state-owned investment, and the controlling shareholder, ao Nong Investment, intends to transfer its 43.98 million shares of the company (accounting for 5.049% of the company's total share capital) to Zhangzhou Golden Investment, with a transfer price of 8.89 yuan per share and a total transfer price of about 390 million yuan. We believe that the introduction of state-owned investment shareholders will help to optimize the company's shareholder structure and provide an effective guarantee for the company's sound business operation in the future. 3) the company is one of the rookie targets of pig farming. It is expected that with the further improvement of fattening capacity utilization in 2023, the breeding cost will improve steadily. 4) risk hint: the death of uncontrollable pig epidemic occurred in the industry, the cost pressure caused by the uncontrollable rise in grain raw material prices, and the profit fluctuation caused by large fluctuations in pig prices. 5) Investment suggestions:
As a rookie in pig farming, the company gradually distributes the fattening end from top to bottom, and is expected to steadily increase its fattening capacity in the future. Taking into account the higher-than-expected pig price loss in the first half of 2023, the company lowered its profit forecast for 2023-2024. The estimated return net profit for 23-25 years is-8.24 Maple 14.69 / 1.362 billion yuan (originally estimated for 2023-2024 net profit is 2.049pm 1.472 billion yuan), EPS is-0.95 cusp 1.69 Mab 1.56 yuan, corresponding to the previous share price PE is-9.8 shock 5.5 Simplex 5.9X, maintaining the "Buy" rating.