Calculating the High Cost of Really Stormy Weather -- Barrons.com
Calculating the High Cost of Really Stormy Weather -- Barrons.com
In the past, major storms and hurricanes in the Atlantic have prompted big price moves for commodities, including oil, natural gas, gasoline, grains, cotton, oranges, and even lumber. Roughly a quarter of U.S. refining activity was shut down in the aftermath of Hurricane Harvey, which made landfall on the Texas coast in August 2017. In the weeks that followed, oil and gasoline prices climbed. "If it's a busy hurricane season, it can affect all the markets, but there are different times of the year when different commodities feel it harder," says Craig Turner, a senior broker at Daniels Trading. DJ Calculating the High Cost of Really Stormy Weather -- Barrons.com
DJ計算真正暴風雨天氣的高昂成本--Barrons.com
By Myra P. Saefong
瑪拉·P·賽豐(Myra P.Saefong)著
Storms in the Atlantic Ocean weren't a major worry for the commodities markets in 2018, but this year's hurricane season, which has seen an early start, may rattle traders' nerves.
大西洋風暴並不是2018年大宗商品市場的主要擔憂，但今年開始較早的颶風季節可能會讓交易員感到不安。
In the past, major storms and hurricanes in the Atlantic have prompted big price moves for commodities, including oil, natural gas, gasoline, grains, cotton, oranges, and even lumber. Roughly a quarter of U.S. refining activity was shut down in the aftermath of Hurricane Harvey, which made landfall on the Texas coast in August 2017. In the weeks that followed, oil and gasoline prices climbed. "If it's a busy hurricane season, it can affect all the markets, but there are different times of the year when different commodities feel it harder," says Craig Turner, a senior broker at Daniels Trading.
過去，大西洋上的重大風暴和颶風曾促使大宗商品價格大幅波動，包括石油、天然氣、汽油、穀物、棉花、橙子，甚至木材。2017年8月在德克薩斯州海岸登陸的颶風哈維(Harvey)過後，美國大約四分之一的煉油活動被關閉。在接下來的幾周裏，石油和汽油價格攀升。丹尼爾斯交易公司(Daniels Trading)高級經紀人克雷格·特納(Craig Turner)表示：“如果是一個繁忙的颶風季節，可能會影響到所有市場，但一年中不同的大宗商品會感覺更難。”
In terms of energy infrastructure, it matters not just where storms hit, but also when. Some energy commodities are "more sensitive than others," says Turner. Oil would probably take a bigger hit from a storm early in the season, when summer travel boosts gasoline demand, while a later-season storm could tighten natural-gas stockpiles just as the market prepares for winter heating season, he says.
就能源基礎設施而言，這不僅關係到風暴襲擊的地點，也關係到風暴襲擊的時間。特納説，一些能源商品“比其他商品更敏感”。他説，石油可能會受到季節早期風暴的更大打擊，因為夏季旅行提振了汽油需求，而在市場為冬季取暖季節做準備之際，季節後期的風暴可能會收緊天然氣庫存。
A recent report from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration predicted that this year's Atlantic hurricane season, which officially runs from June 1 to Nov. 30, may see between nine and 15 named storms, of which four to eight may become hurricanes with winds of 74 miles an hour or higher. Of those, two to four may become major hurricanes with winds of 111 miles an hour or higher. Andrea, a short-lived subtropical storm, formed on May 20, kicking off the season early this year.
美國國家海洋和大氣管理局最近的一份報告預測，今年的大西洋颶風季節正式從6月1日持續到11月30日，可能會有9到15個命名風暴，其中4到8個可能成為風速達到每小時74英里或更高的颶風。在這些颶風中，有兩到四個可能成為風速在每小時111英里或更高的主要颶風。安德里亞是一種短暫的副熱帶風暴，於5月20日形成，今年年初拉開了季節的序幕。
"If there's a major hurricane later in the season, both orange juice and lumber would be most impacted if there was a strike in Florida," says meteorologist James Roemer, president of commodity trading advisor BestWeatherInc.com. Meanwhile, a hurricane in Louisiana "would have more of an impact on soybeans and cotton," where 5% to 10% of those crops may be hit by heavy rains in that state and in Mississippi, says Roemer, adding that there's "a lot of weather right now affecting commodities that is not being influenced by hurricane activity." The Midwest, for instance, has been inundated by floods. A hurricane "would only worsen the crop situation" if it hits the Midwest, he warns.
商品交易諮詢公司BestWeatherInc.com的總裁、氣象學家詹姆斯·羅默(James Roemer)表示：“如果本季度晚些時候有一場大颶風，佛羅里達州發生罷工，橙汁和木材都將受到最大影響。”羅默説，與此同時，路易斯安那州的颶風“將對大豆和棉花造成更大的影響”，該州和密西西比州5%到10%的作物可能會受到暴雨的影響。他補充説，“目前有很多天氣都在影響那些沒有受到颶風活動影響的大宗商品。”例如，中西部地區已經被洪水淹沒。他警告説，如果颶風襲擊中西部，“只會使作物狀況惡化”。
The energy market has often absorbed the brunt of a hurricane's wrath. The most closely watched area is along the Gulf of Mexico between Corpus Christi, Texas, and Pascagoula, Miss., says Denton Cinquegrana, chief oil analyst at IHS Markit's Oil Price Information Service. While the focus would be on refinery or production outages and pipeline issues, a storm that misses infrastructure, he says, can still cause temporary "gasoline demand destruction," as businesses close and roads flood.
能源市場往往首當其衝地承受着颶風的怒火。IHS Markit石油價格信息服務公司(IHS Markit‘s Oil Price Information Service)首席石油分析師丹頓·辛奎格拉納(Denton Cquiegrana)説，最受關注的地區是德克薩斯州科珀斯克里斯蒂(Corpus Christi)和密蘇里州帕斯卡古拉(Pascagoula)之間的墨西哥灣沿岸。他説，雖然焦點將集中在煉油廠或生產中斷以及管道問題上，但一場錯過基礎設施的風暴仍可能造成暫時的“汽油需求破壞”，因為企業關閉，道路氾濫。
Hurricanes can also raise natural-gas production concerns, says Jeff Klearman, portfolio manager at exchange-traded fund issuer GraniteShares. He points out, however, that prices for natural gas initially fell by some 2% following Hurricane Florence, which hit the Carolinas last year, because of "wide-scale power outages and reduced demand for electricity."
交易所交易基金(ETF)發行商GraniteShares的投資組合經理傑夫·克萊爾曼(Jeff Klearman)説，颶風還可能引發對天然氣生產的擔憂。然而，他指出，去年襲擊卡羅萊納州的佛羅倫薩颶風過後，由於“大規模停電和電力需求減少”，天然氣價格最初下降了約2%。
A good way for investors to get "hurricane exposure" may be through an investment in a broad-based commodity index fund, which "provides exposure to a diversified basket of commodities," he says. One such fund is the GraniteShares Bloomberg Commodity Broad Strategy No K-1 ETF (ticker: COMB).
他説，投資者獲得“颶風風險敞口”的一個好辦法可能是投資一個基礎廣泛的大宗商品指數基金，該基金“提供對一籃子多元化大宗商品的風險敞口”。其中一隻基金是GraniteShares Bloomberg Commodity BRoad Strategy No K-1 ETF(股票代碼：COB)。
Myra P. Saefong writes about commodities for MarketWatch.
邁拉·P·賽豐(Myra P.Saefong)為MarketWatch撰寫有關大宗商品的文章。
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(完)道瓊通訊社
May 31, 2019 06:59 ET (10:59 GMT)
2019年5月31日東部時間06：59(格林尼治標準時間10：59)
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