BYDE(285.HK):CLEAR PATH TO MARGIN RECOVERY; UPGRADE TO BUY
BYDE(285.HK):CLEAR PATH TO MARGIN RECOVERY; UPGRADE TO BUY
We upgrade BYDE from Hold to BUY with new TP of HK$31.67, since we believe BYDE will deliver faster-than-expected NPM improvement from 2.7% in 2023E to 2.9%/3.1% in FY24/25E, backed by stabilized Android business, Apple share gain, fast-growing NEV/new intelligent products and improving utilization. BYDE's upbeat 1H23 NP preannouncement of 115-146% YoY growth is also 26%/27% above our/consensus estimates, due to better margin and faster business development. We raised FY23-25E EPS by 11-13% to reflect 1H23 results and better GPM recovery. Our new SOTP-based TP of HK$31.67 implied 17.9x FY23E P/E. The stock trades at 14.4x/11.7x FY23/24E P/E, which is attractive vs 78%/23% EPS growth in FY23/24E. We expect the share will react positively to 1H23 results and upbeat margin recovery.
我們將BYDE從持有升級爲買入，新的目標價爲31.67港元，因爲我們認爲BYDE的NPM增長速度將快於預期，從2023E年的2.7％提高到24/25E財年的2.9％/3.1％，這得益於穩定的安卓業務、蘋果的股價上漲、快速增長的新能源/新智能產品以及利用率的提高。由於利潤率提高和業務發展加快，BYDE樂觀地公佈了23年上半年NP同比增長115-146％，也比我們的/共識預期高出26％/27％。我們將 FY23-25E 每股收益提高了11-13％，以反映23年上半年的業績和更好的GPM復甦。我們基於SOTP的新目標價爲31.67港元，暗示着17.9倍的 FY23E 市盈率。該股的交易價格爲14.4x/11.7倍，這很有吸引力，而23/24E財年的每股收益增長78％/23％。我們預計，該股將對23年上半年的業績和樂觀的利潤率回升做出積極反應。
1H23 earnings beat on better sales and improving margins. BYDE preannounced 1H23 NP growth of 115-146% YoY (Rmb1.36-1.56bn) is 26%/27% above our/consensus estimates, thanks to stronger high-margin segments (Apple business, NEV/new intelligent products) and improving utilization. Implied 2Q23 mid-point NP growth is 122% YoY (vs 1Q23 +155% YoY), mainly due to better GPM and operating efficiency, in our view.
由於銷售的改善和利潤率的提高，23年上半年的收益超過了預期。BYDE預先宣佈，由於高利潤細分市場（蘋果業務、新能源/新智能產品）的走強以及利用率的提高，BYDE預先宣佈的同比增長115-146％（人民幣136-15.6億美元），比我們的共識預期高出26％/27％。我們認爲，23年第二季度隱含的淨資產同比增長122％（而23年第一季度同比增長155％），這主要是由於GPM和運營效率的提高。
Clear path to margin recovery: stabilized Android, Apple share gain and improved mix with emerging businesses. We believe stabilized Android business and Apple share gain in iPad OEM/components are major margin drivers in FY23E, and improving revenue mix of fast-growing NEV/ intelligent products will boost overall margin in FY24/25E. We expect GPM to improve to 7.8% in FY25E (vs 5.9%/7.1%/7.5% in FY22/23/24E), while NPM will expand to 3.1% in FY25E (vs 1.7%/2.7%/2.9% in FY22/23/24E).
利潤率恢復的明確途徑：穩定Android，蘋果的股價上漲，改善與新興業務的組合。我們認爲，穩定的 Android 業務和蘋果在 iPad OEM/組件中的份額增長是 FY23E 的主要利潤驅動力，而快速增長的新能源汽車/智能產品收入組合的改善將提高24/25E財年的整體利潤率。我們預計 FY25E 的GPM將提高到7.8％（而22/23/24E財年的GPM將提高到5.9％/7.1％/7.5％），而FY25E 的NPM將擴大到3.1％（而22/23/24E財年的1.7％/2.7％/2.9％）。
FY23E outlook: Automotive and residential energy storage to drive growth. Looking into FY23E, we are positive on two growth drivers: 1) new intelligent products to deliver stable growth, and residential energy storage revenue to grow 50-100% YoY in FY23E; 2) automotive segment with 100%+ YoY in FY23E driven by parentco orders and external auto OEM (e.g. NVIDIA, Continental and HARMAN).
FY23E 展望：汽車和住宅儲能將推動增長。展望 FY23E，我們對兩個增長驅動因素持樂觀態度：1）新的智能產品將實現穩定增長，FY23E 的住宅儲能收入將同比增長50-100％；2）受母公司訂單和外部汽車原始設備製造商（例如 NVIDIA、Continental 和 HARMAN）的推動，汽車領域 FY23E 同比增長100％以上。
Margin recovery ahead of expectations; Upgrade to BUY. We lifted FY23-25 EPS by 11-13% for 1H23 results and better margin recovery. We upgrade to BUY as we think the worst is over for BYDE's margins and higher target P/E for NEV/intelligent products (from 15x to 20x) and OEM (from 10x to 15x) are justified by improving profitability and fast-growing emerging biz. The stock trades at 14.4x/11.7x FY23/24E, which is attractive vs 78%/23% EPS growth in FY23/24E. Our new SOTP-based TP of HK$31.67 implied 17.9x FY23E P/E. Catalysts include Apple share gain and better margins.
利潤回升超出預期；升級爲買入。我們將 FY23-25 每股收益提高了11-13％，這是因爲 2013 年上半年的業績和更好的利潤率回升。我們之所以升級爲買入，是因爲我們認爲BYDE的利潤率最差的時期已經過去，而新能源/智能產品（從15倍到20倍）和OEM（從10倍增加到15倍）的目標市盈率提高是合理的，因爲盈利能力的提高和新興業務的快速增長。該股的交易價格爲23/24E財年的14.4倍/11.7倍，與23/24E財年的每股收益增長78％/23％相比具有吸引力。我們基於SOTP的新目標價爲31.67港元，暗示着17.9倍的 FY23E 市盈率。催化劑包括蘋果的股價上漲和更高的利潤率。
譯文內容由第三人軟體翻譯。