On July 14, 2023, Panda Dairy issued a half-year performance forecast for 2023.
Main points of investment
The performance exceeded expectations and profits continued to rise.
According to the performance forecast, 2023H1's home net profit is 0.43-48 million yuan (up 89% by 111%), and non-net profit is 0.36-41 million yuan (up 100% by 128%). Of this total, the net profit of 2023Q2 is 0.24-29 million yuan (with an increase of 116% muri 162%), and the non-net profit is 0.2-25 million yuan (with an increase of 131% muri 188%). The performance exceeded expectations, mainly as follows: 1) actively develop new customers and new channels; 2) gradually recover the catering consumption market.
Direct distribution of two-wheel drive, profit is expected to accelerate the release
Product end: at present, it has formed a product matrix based on condensed milk, with cream, cheese and plant as the second growth curve. Condensed milk: sweet condensed milk is mainly used in catering channels and gradually expanded to tea and baking channels, while light condensed milk is mainly used in beverage channels.
Cream: at present, some new products have been used in beverage baking channels, refrigerated thin cream is introduced on the basis of room temperature, and it is expected to benefit from domestic substitution for a long time. Whipped cream has signed up big customers, hoping to drive the layout of dealers. Cheese: the industry is in a period of rapid expansion, the current company cheese to toB-based, Masuri la cheese as the core product, launched cream cheese last year. ToC cut into the Cheese Leisure snack track by investing in Fine Food Workshop, including small Fish Cheese, Cheese Crispy, Cheese Cake and so on. Coconut products: for tea and coffee channels to launch raw coconut milk, thick coconut milk category. Channel end: 1) catering channels, mainly sweet condensed milk, the future plans to broaden products, do sauce products; 2) beverage and baking channels: rapid growth, in recent years is expected to continue in-depth development. Cost side: raw material prices are expected to fall gradually this year, superimposed price increases and recovery of downstream customers, gross profit margin is expected to improve. Regional expansion: the core areas are East and South China, and gradually open up North China and central and western regions.
Profit forecast
We are optimistic that the company will consolidate the basic plate of condensed milk and continue to create a growth pole, and coconut products are expected to continue to sell. It is estimated that the EPS for 2023-2025 will be 1.11 yuan for 0.73 PE 0.91 pounds, and the current share price will be times higher than that of 31-25-20, maintaining the "buy" investment rating.
Risk hint
Downside risk of macro economy, rising risk of raw materials, lower-than-expected expansion outside the province, etc.