PPI Inflation Could Hit Lowest Level Since September 2020, Reflecting Easing Inflationary Pressures
PPI Inflation Could Hit Lowest Level Since September 2020, Reflecting Easing Inflationary Pressures
Following the lower-than-expected consumer price inflation data released Wednesday, there may be more positive news coming on the inflation front with the Thursday release U.S. producer price index (PPI) report.
繼週三公佈的消費者物價通脹數據低於預期之後，隨着週四公佈的美國生產者物價指數（PPI）報告，通貨膨脹方面可能會有更多積極的消息。
Economists predict a year-over-year increase of 0.4% for the PPI index in June, down from 1.1% in May, marking the lowest level since September 2020 and the twelfth consecutive month of declining producer inflation.
經濟學家預測，6月份生產者物價指數同比增長0.4％，低於5月份的1.1％，這是自2020年9月以來的最低水平，也是生產者通脹連續第12個月下降。
The monthly producer inflation is expected to show a 0.2% gain, consistent with May's figures. Core PPI inflation is seen falling from 2.8% to 2.6% annually, the lowest since February 2021.
預計每月生產者通脹率將增長0.2％，與5月份的數據一致。每年核心生產者物價指數通脹率將從2.8％下降至2.6％，爲2021年2月以來的最低水平。
The upcoming release of the producer price index will provide additional insights into inflation trends, which will have ramifications for monetary policy choices and market expectations about future rate hikes by the Federal Reserve.
即將發佈的生產者物價指數將爲通貨膨脹趨勢提供更多見解，這將對貨幣政策選擇和市場對美聯儲未來加息的預期產生影響。
Chart: US PPI Seen Falling To Nearly 3-Year Lows
圖表：美國生產者物價指數跌至近3年低點
June PPI Inflation Preview: What You Need To Know Before The Print
六月生產者物價指數通脹預覽：印刷前你需要知道甚麼
- Consumer inflation in June decreased to 3% year-on-year, posting a full percentage drop from May, and the lowest reading since March 2021. Core inflation, excluding food and energy, also declined to 4.8% year-on-year, falling short of expectations of 5%.
- 6月份的消費者通脹率同比下降至3％，比5月份下降了整整一個百分比，爲2021年3月以來的最低水平。不包括食品和能源在內的核心通貨膨脹率也同比下降至4.8％，低於預期的5％。
- This alleviating inflationary pressure is a result of the manufacturing sector's dismal activity data, where prices paid have dropped significantly. According to the ISM Manufacturing PMI, June witnessed the fastest rate of contraction in the manufacturing sector since May 2020, with the activity gauge down from 46.9 in May to 46 in June. The subindex for prices paid registered a dramatic fall into contraction, down from 44.2 to 41.8 in June.
Read also: US Manufacturing Crisis Worsens: Activity Shrinks For 8th Straight Month To Lowest In 3 Years
- Manufacturers surveyed by the ISM indicated the presence of "a buyers' market, as sellers are concerned about filling order books to support their backlogs." Only one of the top six manufacturing industries (Computer and Electronic Products) reported price increases in June. Eighty-nine percent of companies reported the same or lower prices in June, compared to 85% in May.
- 通貨膨脹壓力的緩解是製造業活動數據慘淡的結果，即支付的價格已大幅下降。根據ISM製造業採購經理人指數，6月份是製造業自2020年5月以來最快的收縮率，活動指標從5月的46.9下降到6月的46。支付價格的子指數急劇收縮，從6月份的44.2降至41.8。
另請閱讀：美國製造業危機惡化：經濟活動連續第8個月萎縮至3年來的最低水平
- ISM調查的製造商表示，存在 “買方市場，因爲賣方擔心填寫訂單簿以支持他們的積壓。”在排名前六的製造業（計算機和電子產品）中，只有一個在6月份報告了價格上漲。89％的公司在6月份報告了相同或更低的價格，而5月份的這一比例爲85％。
- In the month of June, the Bloomberg Commodity Index, as tracked by the iShares Bloomberg Roll Select Commodity Strategy ETF (NYSE:CMDY), rose 2.6%, after falling as much as 6% in May. Compared to the June 2022's levels the commodity gauge was 15% lower in June 2023.
- Oil prices, tracked by the United States Oil Fund ETF (NYSE:USO), increased by 3.7% in June 2023 but remained 33% below June 2022 levels.
- Freight costs, as monitored by the Baltic Dry Index, widely regarded as the most popular global shipping costs index, rose 11% in June after plummeting 39% in May, but remained over 50% lower than June 2022 levels.
- 6月，彭博大宗商品指數追蹤 iShares 彭博滾動精選大宗商品策略 ETF 紐約證券交易所代碼：CMDY）在5月份下跌了6％之後，上漲了2.6％。與2022年6月的水平相比，大宗商品指標在2023年6月下降了15％。
- 石油價格，由 美國石油基金ETF 紐約證券交易所代碼：USO），在2023年6月上漲了3.7％，但仍比2022年6月的水平低33％。
- 運費，由監測 波羅的海乾旱指數被廣泛認爲是最受歡迎的全球航運成本指數，在5月份暴跌39％之後，在6月份上漲了11％，但仍比2022年6月的水平低50％以上。
Read also: 5 Commodity ETFs To Watch When PPI Inflation Data Drops Wednesday
另請閱讀：週三PPI通脹數據下降時，有5只大宗商品ETF值得關注
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譯文內容由第三人軟體翻譯。