Event: 2023Q1, we expect Xiaomi Group's total revenue to drop 24% year over year; adjusted net profit in RMB will increase 5% year over year. The revenue side was under pressure, and the profit side began to pay off.
The mobile phone industry continues to decline, and the company's gross margin is expected to improve. 2023Q1, according to Canalys data, global smartphone shipments were 270 million units, -13% year on year and -9% month on month. Among them, Xiaomi shipped 30.5 million units, -22% year on year and -8% month on month. On the ASP side, we expect there will still be a slight decline due to factors such as promotional inventory removal. In terms of gross margin, profitability is expected to improve significantly due to the reduction in BOM costs and the guarantee of the company's supply chain management capabilities.
Overseas demand is affecting IoT revenue, and profit levels are still good. 2023Q1, global white electronics shipments maintained a relatively positive growth. The company benefited from a low base, and (empty ice wash) development momentum was good; 22Q4 gross margin was 14.3%, benefiting from improved product structure. High margins for wearables (watches) boosted profit levels, and smart TVs and tablets increased gross profit.
Internet services are stable, and advertisements and games are hedged. 2023Q1, pre-installation of corporate advertisements was affected by cost reductions by major Internet companies, and there was some pressure; games maintained a high growth rate. We expect the overall revenue volume to remain stable.
Competition for new energy vehicles has intensified, and the company continues to stand still. The company continues to increase investment in R&D and expand into smart cars and other fields, investing 75-8 billion yuan in 23 years. The market is concerned about the chain reaction brought about by Tesla's price reduction and fuel vehicle price reduction. We believe that with strong R&D capabilities and a huge customer base, the company will have a place for smart electric vehicles in the second half of the year.
Focus on profit recovery brought about by channel inventory removal and consumption recovery in the short term, and focus on changes in ChatGPT over the long term. We believe that 23Q1 inventories have declined, 23Q2 is expected to see an inflection point, 23Q3 market demand will pick up along with the macroeconomic recovery, and the company will benefit accordingly. Looking at the long term, mobile phones and automobiles have many AI model implementation scenarios, and the core of major appliances is service. The company's overseas business accounts for a high share of revenue. It can be connected to ChatGPT, which will benefit from improved AI capabilities and the expansion of customers. As a leader in end consumer goods, the company will enjoy the largest market.
Profit forecast and investment rating: Considering that the company's cost reduction and efficiency are beginning to be reflected, we raised the company's 2023 EPS to 0.5 yuan (previous value was 0.4 yuan), maintained the 2024 EPS at 0.6 yuan, raised the 2025 EPS to 0.7 yuan (previous value of 0.6 yuan), and the corresponding PE was 20.3/17.0/15.0 times respectively (based on the May 10, 2023 exchange rate, HKD/RMB = 0.88). Considering that the company's high-end mobile phones are still advancing, car construction is expected to provide long-term growth momentum, and the emergence of new downstream products such as ChatGPT, we maintain the company's “buy” rating.
Risk warning: industry competition intensifies, the severity of the epidemic exceeds expectations, technology upgrade risk, trade war risk, Hong Kong stock liquidity risk