Heterojunction modules have high efficiency and good performance, and are expected to become the next generation of mainstream technology heterojunction (HJT) modules with high efficiency and high power generation as their core advantages. According to the official websites of various component manufacturers, the efficiency of high-efficiency HJT modules is about 22.50%-23.02%, which is significantly higher than PERC components (21.30%-21.60%); and their low temperature coefficient and high double-sided ratio characteristics can further increase power generation. High power generation modules can achieve lower electricity costs, which are adapted to the cost reduction requirements of power plants. Currently, HJT components have a premium price due to their excellent performance. Their competitiveness can be further improved after the implementation of a number of cost reduction and efficiency technologies, which are expected to become the next generation of mainstream technology. Qianjing Garden (Guosheng Energy) is HJT's new plant and is expected to fully benefit from the development of the industry. We maintained the company's net profit of 0.51/0.61/077 million yuan for 2023-2025, corresponding to EPS 0.08/0.09/0.12 yuan/share, corresponding to the current stock price PE of 66.7/55.8/43.9 times, and maintained the “buy” rating.

New technology has been gradually verified, and heterojunction cost reduction and efficiency are progressing rapidly

After the introduction of the “three minus one increase” plan, HJT's economy is expected to remain the same as TopCon, and HJT has sufficient technical reserves for medium- to long-term cost reduction and efficiency. Economy can be improved in two ways: the first is to reduce the cost of non-silicon materials and silicon wafers. Currently, the thinning of silver coated copper, no main grid, and silicon wafers has been successfully verified, and new technologies such as copper electroplating, laser transfer, localization of TCO materials, and indium-free targets also have potential for development. The second is to further improve module efficiency to obtain sales premiums. Currently, Huasheng New Energy's double-sided microcrystalline modules have been mass-produced, and Saiwu Technology phototransfer films have already been shipped. Furthermore, HJT can later be laminated with perovskite batteries as a platform-based technology to achieve higher efficiency.

Optimistic about the new HJT factory launched in lightweight packaging and the new leader created by iterative technology, the current key investment logic of the HJT industry is in the two stages of production and introduction of new technology. In the production process, we are optimistic that the new HJT component factory (Qianjing Garden) will benefit from deeper development and greater flexibility in the industry. In the process of introducing new technology, we can focus on new leaders created through iterative technology.

Qianjing Garden (Guosheng Energy) is HJT's new plant and is expected to fully benefit from the development of the industry. Currently, the company's fixed increase has been accepted by the Shanghai Stock Exchange. It still needs to be reviewed and approved by the Securities Regulatory Commission and a registration decision is made by the Securities Regulatory Commission. Guosheng Energy has deployed HJT in Jiangsu, Anhui and Hebei provinces. Currently, 1.5 GW of HJT modules, 0.5 GW of batteries, and 1 GW of PERC components have been put into operation; plans are to launch 2.5 GW of HJT batteries, 5 GW of components, and 1 GW of silicon chips.

Risk warning: The transfer of control has not been implemented; the progress of HJT commissioning and the introduction of cost reduction and efficiency technology has fallen short of expectations.