2022 年公司旅游收入0.8 亿元，同比增4.4%，收入占比2.0%，同比基本持平。（3）分区域来看，国内营收28.9 亿元，同比降15.6%，国外营收5.1 亿元，同比降4.7%，收入占比14.9%，同比提升1.5pct。2022 年公司经销商数量合计4913 家，其中港澳台及其他区域经销商602 家，同比增29 家，优势区域华东、华南区域经销商数量分别为1936 家、695 家，同比分别增79 家、130 家，其他区域经销商数量同比均有下滑。（4）2022年公司毛利率57.1%，同比降1.2pct，归母净利率10.9%，同比降1.7pct。Changyu published an annual report for '22 and a quarterly report for '23. Revenue reached 3.92 billion yuan in 2022, down 0.9% year on year, net profit of 430,000 yuan, down 14.3% year on year, and earnings per share of 0.63 yuan/share. 1Q23 achieved revenue of 1.13 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 3.0%, and Guimu's net profit was 280 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 4.8%. Affected by the external environment in 2022, the company's performance was under pressure and fell short of the previous planned target. The company recently introduced restricted equity incentive targets, which are expected to boost internal motivation and maintain the “buy” rating.
Key points to support ratings
Affected by the external environment in 2022, the company's performance was under pressure and fell short of the previous planned target. (1) The scale of the wine industry continued to shrink in 2022 due to the impact of the industry environment and the crushing of alcoholic beverages such as liquor and beer. According to the Wine Industry Association, the wine industry's revenue in 2022 was 9.19 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 2.9%, and profit of 3.4 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 9.9%. In 2022, Changyu's revenue and net profit growth rates were -0.9% and -14.3% respectively. Among them, 4Q22 was affected by the epidemic. Revenue fell 13.6% year on year, and net profit was -0.1 billion yuan (50 billion yuan in 4Q21). (2) By product, wine revenue was 2.84 billion yuan, up 0.3% year on year, accounting for 72.5% of revenue, up 0.8 pct year on year; brandy's revenue was 990 million yuan, down 4.4% year on year; looking at volume and price split, price contributed more than sales. Wine and brandy sales both declined, to -3.2% and -7.8%, respectively, and tonnage prices were +3.6% and +3.8%, respectively.
In 2022, the company's travel revenue was 80 billion yuan, an increase of 4.4% over the previous year, accounting for 2.0% of revenue, which was basically the same as the previous year. (3) Looking at the subregion, domestic revenue was 2.89 billion yuan, down 15.6% year on year, and foreign revenue was 5.1 billion yuan, down 4.7% year on year. Revenue accounted for 14.9%, up 1.5 pct year on year. In 2022, the company had a total of 4,913 dealers, including 602 dealers in Hong Kong, Macao, Taiwan and other regions, an increase of 29 over the previous year. The number of dealers in the dominant regions of East China and South China was 1936 and 695 respectively, up 79 and 130 respectively. The number of dealers in other regions declined year-on-year. (4) In 2022, the company's gross profit margin was 57.1%, down 1.2 pct from the previous year, and the net profit margin of the mother was 10.9%, down 1.7 pct from the previous year.
Overall profitability was greatly affected by the decline in revenue.
There was no significant improvement in 1Q23 performance, and gross margin fell 3.9pct to 58.7% year on year. The year-on-year growth rates of the company's revenue and net profit returned to the mother in 1Q23 were -3.0% and -4.8% respectively. Performance continues to be under pressure. We judge that it is related to weak terminal demand and the impact of the epidemic. The company's gross profit margin was 58.7%, a year-on-year decrease of 3.9 pct. We judge that the decline in gross margin is related, on the one hand, to the rise in raw material costs, and on the other hand, to the rise in demand for mid-range and low-end products and changes in product structure during the Spring Festival. In 1Q23, the company's net interest rate was 24.5%, down 0.5 pct from the previous year, and the cost rate for the period remained basically the same.
The company introduced restricted equity incentives, and performance assessment targets were set relatively conservatively, but a major step has already been taken in reforming the company's structure. The company announced restricted equity incentives (draft). The company plans to grant 6.85 million restricted shares to incentive targets, accounting for 1% of the company's total share capital, with a grant price of 15.69 yuan/share. The total number of recipients is 211 people, including 10 executives, accounting for 21.8% of the total number of shares granted. According to the performance assessment targets set by the company, the company's revenue scale from 2023 to 2025 was not less than 433, 47.2, and 5.12 billion yuan respectively, and the net profit scale was not less than 5.1, 5.3, and 560 million yuan respectively. The CAGR for 22 to 25 was 9.3% and 9.4% respectively. We judged that the company set this goal based on the industry and the company's own circumstances. Although the goal is conservative, it has already taken a big step in reforming the company's structure, which can effectively boost internal motivation.
valuations
According to the company's performance announcement and changes in the external environment, the company's EPS for 23-25 is expected to be 0.77, 0.84, and 0.91 yuan/share respectively, up 22.8%, 9.2%, and 8.2% year-on-year, maintaining the “buy” rating.
The main risks faced by ratings
The pressure on liquor and imported alcohol exceeded expectations. The company's own reforms fell short of expectations.
