2022 年公司毛利率同比+0.7ppt 至14.1%，主要因工业建筑和公共建筑毛利率上行；四项费用率合计同比提高0.4ppt 至8.5%，其中销售/管理/研发/财务费用率分别同比+0.1/+0.2/+0.2/-0.1ppt；资产和信用减值损失合计同比增加9.8%至1.9 亿元，主要因应收账款坏账损失及合同资产减值损失增加；投资收益减少0.08 亿元至0.76 亿元，主要因长期股权投资收益减少；全年净利率为4.5%，同比基本持平。2022 年公司经营现金净流出1.7 亿元，净流出同比收窄30%，主要因存货周转加速、合同负债周转放缓；投资现金净流出6.0 亿元，同比多流出2.0 亿元，主要因房屋建筑购置增加。Performance review
The 2022 performance was lower than we expected.
The company announced its 2022 results: income 15.62 billion yuan, year-on-year + 3.1%; return to the mother net profit 710 million yuan, year-on-year + 2.8% X 4Q22 income 4.56 billion yuan, year-on-year-3.9%, return mother net profit 52 million yuan, year-on-year-58.8%. Due to the increase of 4Q22 sales management expense rate, the increase of impairment provision and the decrease of investment income, the performance is lower than we expected.
In 2022, the company's gross profit margin increased from + 0.7ppt to 14.1% compared with the same period last year, mainly due to the upward gross profit margin of industrial buildings and public buildings; the total expense rates of the four items increased by 0.4ppt to 8.5% compared with the same period last year, of which the sales / management / R & D / financial expense rates were + 0.1/+0.2/+0.2/-0.1ppt, respectively. The total loss of assets and credit impairment increased by 9.8% to 190 million yuan compared with the same period last year, mainly due to the increase in the loss of bad debts of accounts receivable and the impairment loss of contract assets; the investment income decreased by 8 million yuan to 76 million yuan, mainly due to the decrease in income from long-term equity investment; the net interest rate for the whole year was 4.5%, basically the same as the same period last year. In 2022, the company's net operating cash outflow was 170 million yuan, which was 30% lower than the same period last year, mainly due to the acceleration of inventory turnover and the slowdown in contract debt turnover; the net investment cash outflow was 600 million yuan, an increase of 200 million yuan over the same period last year, mainly due to an increase in housing construction purchases.
Trend of development
Revenue from traditional steel structures and newly signed orders increased steadily in 2022. In 2022, the company's revenue was only + 3.2% year-on-year, mainly due to the decline in EPC business revenue, while steel structure business revenue continued to grow steadily compared with the same period last year. In 2022, the company signed a new contract of 18.76 billion yuan, an increase of 10.7% over the same period last year, of which industrial buildings, public buildings, EPC and prefabricated buildings were + 19.2%, + 6.9% and-3.1% respectively, and traditional steel structure business orders maintained steady growth. During the year, the company expanded its strategic leading customers, such as Tianneng Battery, Midea, L'Or é al, NONGFU SPRING CO., LTD., SF and so on. We believe that the company's steel structure has sufficient on-hand orders and superimposed customer expansion in emerging industries, which is expected to provide support for steady revenue growth in 2023.
Pay attention to the landing of BIPV project. According to the statistics of the Energy Bureau, China's newly installed photovoltaic 87.41GW in 2022 increased by 59.3% over the same period last year, of which distributed photovoltaic 51.1GW was added, an increase of 74.5% over the same period last year, which is the main driving force for new photovoltaic installation. In recent years, the company has continued to layout photovoltaic building integration business, launched BIPV roof products "Jingyi" in 2022, and formed strategic cooperation with photovoltaic module enterprises (Oriental Risheng Green Power, Jiangsu Tianhe Wisdom distributed Energy) to enhance differentiated competitive advantage by using R & D achievements. In March this year, the company launched a 12.5MW distributed photovoltaic project cooperation with global auto parts giant Minshi Group to achieve a new breakthrough in BIPV business. We suggest to keep an eye on the arrival of the company's BIPV order.
Profit forecast and valuation
Due to the slight slowdown in the company's project promotion, we lowered our 2023 profit forecast by 16% to 849 million yuan, and introduced a net profit of 1.03 billion yuan in 2024. The company is currently trading at 9x/8x 23Comp24e Phammer E; due to the lower profit forecast, we have lowered our target price by 9% to 4.78 yuan, corresponding to 11x/9x 23e/24eP/E and 20% upside, to maintain an outperform industry rating.
Risk
The price of steel fluctuates too fast, and the market competition intensifies.