晶盛机电(300316):与西部超导签订战略合作协议 超导磁场第五代单晶炉有望快速放量

Jingsheng Electromechanical (300316): Signed a strategic cooperation agreement with Western Superconductor, and the fifth-generation single-crystal superconducting magnetic field is expected to be released rapidly

東吳證券 ·  06/06  · Researches

Event: On June 5, 2023, Jingsheng Electromechanical and Western Superconductor reached a strategic cooperation agreement.

The stable supply of key wires is beneficial to Jingsheng's magnetic field expansion and cost reduction: In the current strategic cooperation model between Jingsheng Electromechanical and Western Superconductor, we expect that Jingsheng will mainly buy Western Superconducting wires, and Huixiang Electrohydraulic, a subsidiary of Jingsheng Electromechanical, produces superconducting magnetic fields.

Judging from the cost composition of superconducting magnetic fields, superconducting wires account for the largest share, about 50-60%, and the rest of the freezers and containers account for about 5-7%. Finland's Luvata is a foreign leader, and Jingsheng has reached a cooperation with Western Superconductor to obtain a stable and sufficient supply of wire to facilitate the expansion of magnetic field production capacity and reduce magnetic field production costs. Currently, Huixiang Electric Liquid, a subsidiary of Jingsheng, is the leading manufacturer with the highest market share of superconducting magnetic fields in China. It has shipped 200+ superconducting magnetic fields and is committed to promoting the localization of semiconductor superconducting magnetic fields. Customers include first-tier semiconductor silicon wafer manufacturers such as Zhonghuan Leading.

The penetration rate of superconducting magnetic field monocrystalline furnaces is expected to increase rapidly: in May 2023, Jingsheng Electromechanical launched the fifth-generation photovoltaic low-oxygen monocrystalline furnace, which is configured with a superconducting magnetic field to reduce the oxygen content, reducing the oxygen content to 7 ppma and improving efficiency by 0.1%-0.5%. Currently, the company has signed orders for about 3,500 equipment for fifth-generation monocrystalline furnaces with superconducting magnetic fields, and is expected to be equipped with nearly 300 fifth-generation monocrystalline furnaces with superconducting magnetic fields in 2023, accounting for about 9%.

We expect that as the expansion of superconducting magnetic field production accelerates, its price will gradually drop from 1.5 million/unit to 1 million/unit, and at the same time the increase in cell efficiency will increase from 0.1% to 0.5%. We expect that by 2024, the fifth generation monocrystalline furnace with superconducting magnetic fields will account for 50% of Jingsheng monocrystalline furnace shipments and 100% in 2025. The new monocrystalline furnace will be a revolutionary new product in photovoltaic equipment.

Quality requirements for N-type silicon wafers have improved, and a new round of technology iteration favors equipment suppliers: N-type silicon wafer competition evolved from size to high and low quality, and the advanced production capacity advantage of the latest low-oxygen monocrystalline furnace equipment is obvious. Jingsheng Electromechanical, Autoway, Liancheng CNC, etc. have all launched corresponding products. Among them, Jingsheng Electromechanical chose to introduce a slightly more expensive superconducting magnetic field, reducing the oxygen content to 7 ppma and improving efficiency by 0.1%-0.5%. Otway chose a cost-effective optimized heat field design plan that reduced the oxygen content to less than 9 ppma and increased efficiency by +0.1%, we believe that low-oxygen monocrystalline furnaces are developing In the early stages, it is beneficial to various silicon wafer equipment vendors. In the future, as silicon wafer specifications increase, different technology routes may be adapted to different customer needs.

Profit forecasting and investment ratings: PV equipment is the first curve of Jingsheng Electromechanical's growth, the second curve is the amount of semiconductor equipment released, and the third curve is the total volume of photovoltaic consumables and semiconductor consumables. We maintained the company's net profit of 47/58/7 billion yuan in 2023-2025, and the corresponding PE was 18/15/12 times, maintaining the “buy” rating.

Risk warning: Downstream production expansion fell short of expectations, and R&D progress fell short of expectations.

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