天齐锂业(002466):锂行业龙头 布局全球优质锂矿 资源开拓稳步进行

Tianqi Lithium (002466): The leading layout of the lithium industry and the development of high-quality lithium ore resources in the world is progressing steadily

海通國際 ·  05/19  · Researches

Lithium industry leader, outstanding performance in 2022, released a five-year strategic plan. Tianqi Lithium's revenue in 2022 was 40.449 billion yuan, up 427.82% year on year; Guimu's net profit was 24.125 billion yuan, up 1060.47% year on year; lithium ore production was 1,349 million tons, up 41.37% year on year; lithium salt production was 47,000 tons, up 8.16% year on year. The five-year strategic plan issued by the company targets the production capacity of lithium chemical products equivalent to about 300,000 tons of lithium carbonate by 2027.

Leveraging the world's highest quality lithium resources, the company is now the fourth largest supplier of lithium chemical products in the world and the second largest supplier of lithium chemical products in China and Asia. The resource supply-side company has obvious advantages. Australia's Greenbush Lithium Concentrate and Chile's Atacama Lithium Salt Lake, which are controlled by the company, are currently the highest-quality and most abundant spodumene project in the world and the salt lake project with the largest reserves in the world, respectively. The company is deeply involved in the lithium ore mining and smelting industry and the chemical raw materials and chemical products manufacturing industry. It currently has four lithium chemical product production bases, located in Shehong, Sichuan, Tongliang, Chongqing, Zhangjiagang, Jiangsu, and Quinana, Australia. The total production capacity of lithium compounds and derivatives is 68,800 tons/year. The total production capacity of lithium chemical products has been clearly planned, exceeding 110,000 tons/year, equivalent to 88,200 tons/year.

The termination of the transaction relating to the holding subsidiary TLEA's proposed acquisition of 100% equity in Australian Essential Metals Limited (ESS) will not have a significant adverse impact on the company's performance for the time being. Since ESS's shareholders' meeting to review this transaction failed to pass, according to the “Plan Implementation Agreement” previously signed between TLEA and ESS, TLEA terminated the transaction separately in accordance with the relevant contractual rights. At the same time, neither party was liable for the terminated transaction. Therefore, the termination of this transaction will not have a significant adverse impact on the company's financial situation and operating results this year, nor will it harm the interests of the company and all shareholders.

Profit forecasts and ratings: We expect the company's revenue from 2023 to 2025 to be 36.511 billion, 35.944 billion, and 33.631 billion respectively, and the company's net profit from 2023 to 2025 is 19.631 billion, 18.508 billion, and 18.420 billion respectively. We expect the company's EPS from 2023 to 2025 to be 11.96 yuan, 11.28 yuan, and 11.22 yuan respectively (the original forecast was 13.97 yuan, 13.24 yuan, 13.20 yuan). According to the valuation of comparable companies, we gave the company 10 times PE in 2023, with a target price of 119.6 yuan (originally 97.79 yuan, 7 times PE in 2023, +22%), maintaining the “superior market” rating.

Risk warning: Fluctuating raw material prices, downstream demand falling short of expectations, capacity construction and release falling short of expectations, and the process of nationalizing Chile's lithium industry had a negative impact on lithium resource imports.

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