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现代牙科(03600.HK):业绩短期承压 持续看好义齿龙头业绩复苏

MODERN DENTAL (03600.HK): Short-term performance is under pressure and continues to be optimistic about the recovery of leading dentures

天風證券 ·  Apr 17, 2023 15:07  · Researches

occurrences

On March 30, 2023, the company announced its 2022 annual results. In 2022, the company achieved operating income of HK$2,830 million, a year-on-year decrease of 4.2%; net profit to mother was HK$221 million, a year-on-year decrease of 38.8%. 2022H2 achieved operating income of HK$1,404 million, down 2.0% from the previous month, and realized net profit to mother of HK$120 million, an increase of 20.0% over the previous month.

reviews

Performance achieved steady performance under the influence of the epidemic. The core markets were all in a market-leading position in 2022. The domestic epidemic had an impact on the company's production and operation in the first half of the year and domestic customers in the second half of the year. However, with the advantages of sales and distribution networks, the company continued to be in a leading position in all major global markets. Among them, Europe, North America, Greater China, and Australia and New Zealand achieved sales revenue of HK$11.81, 7.09, 6.67, and 236 million respectively.

The results of digital transformation are outstanding, seizing opportunities for industry integration

We expect the COVID-19 pandemic to accelerate the elimination of small and medium-sized denture processing companies and the digital development of the oral cavity. The application of intra-oral scanners will increase dramatically. The company will continue to grasp the growing demand for dental treatment and accelerate the digital transformation of dentistry. The number of digital solutions in the company will reach 549,700 cases in 2022, with a compound growth rate of 128% in 2020-2022. As an industry leader, the company is expected to seize the opportunities of market integration and digital dental development, provide the most advanced digital solutions for the dental field in the market, and further enhance market share and customer stickiness.

Operational efficiency is basically stable, and invisible orthodontic products contribute new volume

The company's operating capacity fluctuated slightly due to the pandemic, and overall financial indicators were stable. In 2022, the company achieved a net profit margin of 7.8% and a gross profit margin of 48.9%, maintaining a high level; the EBITDA was HK$463 million, and the core business remained profitable. In 2022, the company's own invisible orthodontic product TrioClear was launched in more than 22 countries around the world, achieving sales of HK$26 million throughout the year, an increase of 22.6% over the previous year, contributing additional volume to the performance.

Profit Forecasts and Ratings

Due to the impact of the 2022 pandemic on dental clinic operations, the company's performance is under pressure in the short term, but we are optimistic about the recovery in performance in 2023 due to the release of demand and the restoration of operations and supply chains suppressed during the pandemic. Based on the company's 2022 annual report results, the revenue forecast for 2023/2024 was lowered from HK$3,948/4.619 billion to HK$3372/3,905 million; the net profit forecast for 2023/2024 was lowered from HK$474/574 million to HK$303/390 million; the “buy” rating was maintained.

Risk warning: global economic and multinational business risk; risk of repeated epidemics; risk of concentration of production facilities; exchange rate risk

The translation is provided by third-party software.


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