中国太保(601601)2022年年报点评:NBV降幅全年收窄 非机动车险业绩突出

China Taibao (601601) 2022 annual report review: NBV decline narrowed throughout the year, and non-motor vehicle insurance performance was outstanding

東北證券 ·  04/18  · Researches

In 2022, China's Taibao Guimu's net profit was 24.61 billion yuan, -8.29% year on year; the company achieved insurance business revenue of 398.82 billion yuan, of which life insurance business revenue was 225.34 billion yuan, +6.5% year on year; property insurance business revenue was 1703.8 billion yuan, +11.6% year on year. The company's built-in value was 519.621 billion yuan, an increase of 4.3% over the previous year, and achieved a new business value of 9.205 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 31.4%. The return on total investment fell to 4.2%, -0.2pct year over year.

Comment: China Taibao Life Insurance's NBV decline narrowed throughout the year. The life insurance business first saw improvements in the second half of 2022. The company's life insurance business segment achieved business revenue of 225.34 billion yuan in the full year of 2022, an increase of 6.5% over the previous year. The value of the company's new life insurance business increased year-on-year in the second half of 2022, reversing the decline in the value of the new life insurance business over the past three years. The number of company agents has been cleared at an accelerated pace, and the efficiency of agent channel operations has been greatly improved. The average number of agents per month was 279,000, a decrease of 46.9% over the previous year, an increase of 17 pct over the previous year; the average monthly income of insurance marketers in the first year of insurance business was 6,844 yuan, an increase of 47.6% over the previous year. The new business revenue of the company's banking insurance channel in 2022 was 28.81 billion yuan, an increase of 332% over the previous year. China Taibao is actively expanding its multi-channel layout. Currently, banking insurance channels are gradually becoming one of the main sources of income from the company's life insurance business.

In terms of industrial insurance, China's Taibao's non-motor vehicle insurance premium revenue increased significantly, and industrial insurance business momentum in emerging fields was strong. Locomotive insurance premium business revenue was 97.992 billion yuan, up 6.7% year on year, and non-motor insurance premium revenue was 72.385 billion yuan, up 19% year on year. The company's industrial insurance business structure continues to be optimized, with non-auto insurance accounting for 2.6pct to 42.5% commission. The company's comprehensive cost ratio was reduced to the leading level in the industry, and profit margins in the industrial insurance business were further released: in 2022, the comprehensive cost ratio of the industrial insurance division was reduced to 97.3%, a year-on-year decrease of 1.7 pct. Liability insurance, agricultural insurance, and guarantee insurance underwriting are profitable, while the profit margins of the health insurance business need to be improved.

On the investment side, revenue from securities trading drags down the total return on investment, and the restoration of equity market conditions is expected to drive vitality on the asset side. At the end of 2022, equity investment accounted for 22% of the company's portfolio. We expect the recovery and stabilization of the equity market in 2023 to drive asset side vitality.

Investment suggestions: China Taibao's revenue from new H2 orders in 2022 recovered strongly, leading the industry; agents were purged at an accelerated pace, and production capacity per capita was greatly released; the multi-channel layout was beginning to bear fruit, and revenue from the banking insurance channel insurance channel was growing steadily; in terms of industrial insurance, the comprehensive cost ratio led the industry, and profit margins were further released; the company's non-auto insurance business grew strongly, and the business structure continued to be optimized.

On the asset side, we expect the recovery in equity market conditions in 2023 to revive asset side vitality. Based on the performance of 2022, we expect the company's net profit of 23/24/25 to be 324.382/42.7 billion yuan respectively. Currently, the A-share counterpart company's 2023 PEV is 0.53, giving it a “buy” rating.

Risk warning: performance and valuation fell short of expectations; macroeconomic and industry policy changes; market volatility intensified, equity market recovery fell short of expectations; large-scale claims settlement events occurred; long-term interest rates declined

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