中国太保(601601):寿险及健康险NBV同比-31.4% 产险发展良好

Taibao, China (601601): Life insurance and health insurance NBV developed well by -31.4% year-on-year

山西證券 ·  03/27  · Researches

Incident: The company released its 2022 annual report. It has earned 368.9 billion yuan in premiums for the whole year, +8.6% year on year, investment income of 81,134 billion yuan, -16.0% year on year, the Group's operating profit of 40,115 billion yuan, +13.5% year on year, and net profit of 24.609 billion yuan, -8.3% year on year. Group EV519.6 billion yuan, +4.3% year on year.

Life and health insurance NBV was 9.205 billion yuan, -31.4% year on year, NBVM 11.6%, year-on-year - 11.9pct.

The number of agents has decreased and the quality has increased, and the share of new banking insurance policies has increased markedly. New agent orders amounted to 22.943 billion yuan, -21.5% year-on-year, the average number of agents per month was 279,000, -46.9% year on year, and the per capita production capacity was 6,853 yuan/person/month, +47.7% year on year. Individual insurance channels NBV was 8.338 billion yuan, -36.2% year on year, NBVM 31.5%, year-on-year - 11.1pct. Individual insurance channels may supplement prices by selling low-value products. New banking insurance orders amounted to 32.140 billion yuan, +242.0% year on year, accounting for 46.1% and an increase of 27.9pct. The banking insurance channel NBV was 860 million yuan, +174.8% year on year, NBVM 2.7%, -0.6pct year on year. Industrial insurance is developing well. Insurance premiums were 1704 billion yuan, +11.6% year on year, and the comprehensive cost ratio was 97.3%, -1.7 pct year on year. Among them, car insurance premiums were 97.992 billion yuan, +6.7% year on year, the comprehensive cost ratio was 96.9%, and the year-on-year rate was -1.8 pct. Non-vehicle business premiums were 72.385 billion yuan, +19.0% year on year, mainly driven by liability insurance, health insurance, and agricultural insurance.

Investment returns are being dragged down by equity investments. The net/total investment returns were 4.3% and 4.2%, the year-on-year ratio was -0.2pct and -1.5pct. The return on investment in fixed income/equity/investment real estate/cash and equivalents was 4.5%/2.7%/6.1%/1.3%, respectively, and -0.4pct/-5.9pct/-1.2pct/+0.2pct.

Investment advice: The company was clearly dragged down by investment income in 2022, and this situation is expected to improve in 2023. Under the assumption of a gradual recovery in return on investment, we raised the 2023-25 profit forecast by 4.8%, 2.6%, and 1.4%, respectively. After the increase, the net profit growth rates for the mother were +22.01%, +14.24%, and +15.04%, respectively. The company 2023E P/EV 0.44x is at a low level in nearly 5 years, maintaining “increase in holdings -A”.

Risk warning: Banking insurance business development falls short of expectations, rapid decline in NBVM, capital market fluctuations, etc.

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