北新建材(000786)2022年年报点评:逆境提价展现石膏板定价权 静待家装渗透、乡县下沉

Review of the 2022 annual report of Beixin Building Materials (000786): Adversity and price increases show that gypsum board pricing power is waiting for home improvement to penetrate and townships to sink

民生證券 ·  04/01  · Researches

The company disclosed its 2022 annual report: full-year revenue was 19.034 billion yuan, -5.46% year on year, net profit of 3.136 billion yuan, -10.65% year on year, net profit returned to the mother after deduction of 2,615 million yuan, -23.39% year on year. Among them, 22Q4 achieved revenue of 4.624 billion yuan, -10.44% year on year, net profit of 792 million yuan, +0.64% year on year, net profit returned to the mother after deduction of 362 million yuan, or -51.60% from the same period last year. The gross profit margin for the year was 29.24%, the year-on-year gross profit margin was -2.59pct, the net profit margin was 15.77%, and the year-on-year was -1.07pct. Among them, the 22Q4 gross profit margin was 27.44%, the year-on-year was -4.47pct, the net profit margin was 17.23%, and the year-on-year rate was +1.94 pct. In terms of revenue structure, gypsum board accounted for 67.04%, an increase of 1.70 pct, and keel revenue accounted for 12.63%, a decrease of 0.44 pct, a decrease of 0.44 pct, waterproof membrane accounted for 10.83%, a decrease of 1.24 pct, waterproof paint accounted for 2.23%, a decrease of 0.28 pct.

Gypsum board sales declined, but the market share was stable, and the unit price increased significantly, showing the cost transmission capacity. In 2022, the company's gypsum board production capacity was 3,358 million square meters, with sales volume of 2,093 billion square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 12.01%. Based on this, it is estimated that the capacity utilization rate is 64.29%. We estimate that the market share of production capacity and sales volume is 68.95% and 68.11% respectively, which is basically the same as the previous year. The gypsum board business achieved revenue of 13.365 billion yuan, -3.02% year on year, accounting for 67.04% of operating revenue, +1.70pct year on year. In response to rising costs, we estimate that the unit price of the company's gypsum board was 6.39 yuan/square meter (+0.60 yuan/square meter compared to the previous year; 4.43, 5.43, 5.85, 5.60, 5.43, 5.79 yuan/square meter in 2016-2021, respectively), the unit cost was 4.15 yuan/square meter (+0.51 yuan/square meter compared to the previous year), and the gross profit per square meter was 2.24 yuan (+0.09 yuan over the previous year). Gypsum board raw materials accounted for 57.25% of operating costs, a year-on-year decrease of 2.92 pct, fuel power of 27.57%, an increase of 2.73 pct, labor costs 6.5 4%, and an increase of 0.08 pct. Taishan Gypsum's revenue in 2022 was 10.923 billion yuan (including dragon bone), net profit of 1,910 billion yuan, and a net interest rate of 17.49%.

Revenue from keels and waterproof building materials has all declined

In 2022, Keel achieved revenue of 2,517 billion yuan, -8.65% year on year, gross profit margin of 18.94%, +0.51 pct year on year. The matching ratio with gypsum board is expected to continue to increase. Waterproofing revenue was 3.145 billion yuan, -18.88% year-on-year, accounting for 15.78%, a year-on-year decrease of 2.60 pct. Among them, waterproof membrane revenue was 2,160 billion yuan, -15.18% year-on-year, gross profit margin 17.25%, and -10.10pct year-on-year. The larger decline was related to declining revenue and high prices of raw materials such as asphalt. At present, 16 waterproof material production base layout plans have been promoted. A “1+N” waterproofing industry pattern will be formed, the “Beixin” waterproof brand will be developed and built, at the same time, N independent brands will be built in specialized markets and business fields.

Expense rates increased slightly during the period, and cash flow performance was relatively stable

Sales expenses in 2022 were 760 million yuan, -2.89% year on year, sales expense ratio 3.81% year on year, +0.10pct year on year; management expenses were 1,025 million yuan, +0.47% year on year, management expenses rate 5.14%, +0.30pct; financial expenses were 106 million yuan, +28.78% year on year, financial expense ratio 0.53% year on year; R&D investment was 861 million yuan, -1.54% year on year, R&D expenses rate 4.32% year on year, +0.17pct year on year; the cost rate for each period was slightly higher The increase was mainly due to a decline in revenue. Net cash flow from the company's operating activities in 2022 was 3.664 billion yuan, compared with 3.831 billion yuan in the same period last year, -167 million yuan; of these, lightweight building materials were 3.401 billion yuan, compared with 4,016 million yuan in the same period last year, -615 million yuan; waterproof building materials were 272 million yuan, compared with -122 million yuan in the same period last year. Notes and accounts receivable at the end of 2022 totaled $2,180 million, +3.9% compared to the beginning of the year.

Optimizing business strategies: channel sinking, differentiated marketing

Actively improve the channel network, promote the four transformations of “public equipment to home improvement, city to county and township, base material to surface material, product to service”, and step up efforts to expand retail business in counties, towns, and home improvement, not only hedging the downward pressure in traditional fields, but also gaining a foundation for continued growth on a larger circuit, achieving steady growth in home improvement retail sales and county sales throughout the year. The company insisted on intensive regional market cultivation. The number of regional companies was adjusted from 14 to 25, and channels were reduced and differentiated marketing was strengthened.

Investment advice: Considering the steady advancement of the company's “One Wings, Global Layout” strategy and the possibility that real estate demand will recover to a certain extent, we expect the company's net profit to be 3813, 4329, and 4.977 billion yuan respectively in 2023-2025. The current price corresponding to dynamic PE is 12x, 10x, and 9x, respectively. Maintain a “Recommended” rating.

Risk warning: Real estate policy changes fall short of expectations; risk of fluctuations in raw material prices.

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