The company layout automobile lightweight + navigable aircraft "twin-engine strategy", automobile lightweight includes three parts: aluminum alloy (steam wheel + motorcycle wheel), magnesium alloy parts and high strength steel. Short-term wheels, medium-term magnesium alloy and long-term navigable aircraft have three logical smoothness. All three businesses are developing upward, alternately achieving the maximum growth rate.
Short-term aluminum hub 1-2 years: aluminum alloy hub center of gravity transfer and capacity layout, restorative growth + demand growth, performance is expected to improve rapidly. ① aluminum alloy steam turbine accounts for about 10% of the world; ② steam turbine due to 19 years of U. S. tariffs affected by the decline in sales, and then gradually turned to domestic new energy vehicles, with the help of new energy products to gradually restore the company's capacity level; ③ motorcycle focuses on Southeast Asia and India, close to the main motorcycle sales market, India capacity release, short-term release performance.
Medium-term magnesium alloy 1-5 years: automobile electrification promotes lightweight demand, magnesium alloy has excellent performance, and the market scale is gradually increasing. The company's magnesium alloy business follows the rapid rise of aluminum wheels, and will become the main growth point of aluminum wheels in the medium term. The company's magnesium Reading is the largest overseas supplier of magnesium alloy parts, and its technology is ahead of other domestic competitors. The domestic production equipment is ready, and the technology is copied directly from overseas to China. At present, it has obtained orders from VinFast, XPeng Inc., NIO Inc., BYD and other new forces. It is expected that in 1-5 years, the overseas market will increase steadily, and the amount of bicycles + assembly models in the domestic middle and high-end market is expected to increase rapidly, which will help the development of magnesium alloy industry.
Long-term navigation for 1-10 years: overseas markets accelerate to grab share and maintain the leading position, while the Chinese market accumulates strength and waits for policy to catalyze take-off. Domestic navigation is still in its infancy, compared with the United States, the number of navigable aircraft in China is far lower than that in the United States, and the absolute blue sea market; the diamond aircraft acquired by the company, it has all the R & D intellectual property rights and manufacturing capabilities required for the business of navigable aircraft, leading the world. Sales in overseas markets have taken the lead, domestic production capacity has continued to be distributed, and business has continued to grow. "East" and "North" have been completed, and navigation leaders are waiting for domestic policies to catalyze take-off.
Profit forecast: the company's strategy is clear, and the growth trend of multi-business coordination is lasting. The structure of aluminum alloy steam turbine is adjusted to new energy, the Southeast Asian market of motorcycle wheel is up, the demand is driven by magnesium alloy lightweight, and the blue sea of navigable aircraft is broad. We estimate that the company's revenue from 2022 to 2024 will be RMB 160max (+ 15%) / RMB 213,000,000 (+ 15%) respectively, the net profit of return to the parent will be RMB9.7 (+ 21%) / RMB11.6 (+ 19%) respectively, and the EPS will be RMB 0.38max / 0.45pm respectively. Cover for the first time and give a "recommended" rating.
Risk tips: automobile industry returns less than expected; motorcycle policy restrictions increase; raw material prices rise; magnesium alloy demand growth is not as expected; navigation policy release is not as expected; exchange rate fluctuation risk