中国太保(601601)2022年年报点评:过程、结果指标双优 寿险改革成效持续显现

China Taibao (601601) 2022 Annual Report Review: Process and Outcome Indicators Double Premium Life Insurance Reform Results Continue to Show

西部證券 ·  03/28  · Researches

The year-on-year gap in Guimu's net profit continued to narrow. In '22, the company achieved net profit of YoY -8.29% to 24.609 billion yuan, a growth rate of qoq+2.3 pcts; EV was +4.3% from the beginning of the year to 519.621 billion yuan.

The life insurance process and outcome indicators were both excellent. There was a year-on-year increase in new orders in Q4, and steady growth in 22H2NBV. In '22, the company achieved new premiums/NBV of 663.71/9.205 billion yuan, and YOY +35.7%/-31.4%. Affected by changes in product structure and channel structure, NBVM yoy-11.9pct to 11.6%, +0.9 pcts compared to 22H1 level. 1) The agent channel process indicators continue to be optimized: by the end of '22, the company's agent team was 241,000, with an average manpower of 279,000 in '22, yoy -46.9%; average monthly performance rate/new orders per capita yoy+11.3pct/ +47.6%. 2) The banking insurance channel developed rapidly, with YOY +332.05% of new orders in '22 to 28.81 billion yuan, contributing 126.8% of the increase in new orders; NBV YOY +174.9%, accounting for YOY+7.0 pcts. 3) The quality of insurance policies has steadily improved: the 13-month continuation rate of the personal life insurance business was yoy+7.7pct, the withdrawal rate was yoy-0.2 pct, and the negative contribution of differences in operating experience narrowed 95.4% year-on-year.

Financial insurance underwriting profits have soared. In '22, financial insurance premium income was yoy +11.6% to 170.377 billion yuan; the comprehensive cost ratio yoy-1.7pct to 97.3%; of these, the expense rate/payout ratio was 28.8%/68.5%, yoy 0.6pct/-1.1 pct, and the underwriting profit yoy +201.6%% reached 3.884 billion yuan. 1) Car insurance: premium/comprehensive cost ratio yoy +6.7%/-1.8pct to 97.992 billion yuan/ 96.9%; 2) Non-car insurance: premium/comprehensive cost ratio yoy +190% /- 1.4pct to 72.385 billion yuan/ 98.1%, underwriting profit yoy+ 396.8% to 1,048 million yuan; liability insurance/agricultural insurance/health insurance/guarantee insurance premium yoy +37.1%/+32.7%/+20.0%/+6.1%; COR is 99.8%/97.7%, respectively /101.6 %/ 95.5%, YOY+1.3 pct/-1.9 pct/-0.3 pct/+0.4 pct

The investment side achieved marginal improvements. The net and total investment returns in '22 were 4.3%/4.2%, yoy-0.2pct/-1.5pct, and qoq+0.2pct/+0.1pct, respectively. The Group's investment assets were YOY +11.8% to 2.03 trillion yuan. Fixed income/equity assets accounted for 73.9%/22.0%, and YOY-1.8pct/+0.8pct respectively.

Investment suggestions: Life insurance reform continues to show results, and expectations for a good start and positive growth are expected to be realized; leading financial insurance advantages continue to be highlighted. The current stock price corresponding to PEV (23E) is 0.43 times, maintaining the “buy” rating.

Risk warning: interest rate risk, market risk, recurrent epidemics, risk of major disasters.

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