上海石化(600688)2022年三季报点评:装置复产叠加油价下行预期 利润空间有望修复

Shanghai Petrochemical (600688) 2022 Third Quarter Report Review: The resumption of equipment production combined with falling oil prices is expected to recover profit margins

川財證券 ·  10/28/2022  · Researches


According to the third-quarter report of 2022, the company achieved 57.779 billion yuan in operating income from January to September in 2022, down 6.6% from the same period last year. The net profit attributed to the parent company was-2.003 billion yuan, and the net profit attributable to the parent company after deducting non-recurring profits and losses was-1.932 billion yuan. By the end of September, the total assets of the company had reached 44.689 billion yuan, and the net assets belonging to the shareholders of the listed company were 27.388 billion yuan.


With the resumption of production, the operating profit is expected to be repaired.

On June 18 this year, the company's ethylene glycol plant exploded, and the main production equipment stopped after the accident, resulting in a decline in sales revenue and operating performance from the end of the second quarter to the third quarter of the company. During the reporting period, the company resumed production in an orderly manner in three stages. By the end of the third quarter, the No. 2 ethylene glycol plant of the Chemical Department of the company was started smoothly, and the resumption of production was completed. The resumption of production means that the revenue bottleneck of the company has been broken, and the timely production and delivery of orders will greatly improve the company's revenue performance.

Oil prices enter the downward cycle, cost pressure loosens

Since the third quarter, international crude oil prices have continued to decline, effectively reducing the company's cost pressure. Since the beginning of the year, according to the price of Brent crude oil, the international crude oil price has fluctuated down since it reached a high of 127.98 yuan per barrel on March 8. The price center of crude oil has fallen back to 90-100 US dollars per barrel in the third quarter of this year. Although oil prices have rebounded since October, the overall price level has dropped significantly compared with the first and second quarters. Due to the slowdown in global economic growth, expectations for future crude oil demand have also declined. Although the production cuts of OPEC + member countries and the energy crisis in Europe still support crude oil prices to a certain extent, considering the weakening of crude oil consumption demand in the future, international crude oil prices will maintain a downward trend. I am optimistic that the company will repair its profit margin next year as cost pressure falls.

Profit forecast

We estimate that in 2022-2024, the company will achieve operating income of 819.95, 957.21 and 96.879 billion yuan, and net profit attributable to the parent company-26.3,9.77 and 1.379 billion yuan, corresponding to EPS-0.24, 0.09 and 0.13 yuan per share.

The main points of valuation are as follows: on October 28, 2022, the stock price is 3.07 yuan, corresponding to the market capitalization of 33.2 billion yuan, and the PE in 2022-2024 is about-12.63,34.01,24.10 times. The company has long ploughed the oil and petrochemical industry chain and made great efforts to build a carbon fiber industry cluster. With the decline in crude oil prices, the company's profit space is expected to be repaired.

Risk hint: the new production capacity of silicon material is not as expected, the construction of photovoltaic industry slows down, and the logistics of epidemic situation is blocked repeatedly.

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