EPS0.159 yuan in the first three quarters, in line with expectations. The company has a better grasp of the market opportunity of power shortage in the flood season, leading to a significant rise in electricity prices in the third quarter and a significant improvement in performance in the third quarter, which has been alleviated so that the company's follow-up profits will still return to the cost side. Adjust the company's 2022-2024 EPS forecast to-0.01 pesque 0.16 0.31 yuan, give the company 1.1 times the target PB in 2023, corresponding to the target price 6.10 yuan, maintain the "buy" rating.
The performance in the first three quarters was 285 million yuan, in line with expectations. In the first three quarters, the company achieved operating income of 13.834 billion yuan, an increase of 28.96% over the same period last year, and a net profit of 285 million yuan, corresponding to EPS0.159 yuan.
From a quarterly point of view, the company achieved operating income of 4.988 billion yuan in the third quarter, an increase of 53.04% over the same period last year, and its mother's net profit was 344 million yuan, turning losses into profits compared with the same period last year, corresponding to EPS0.192 yuan.
The price of Q3 thermal power has increased significantly and has a positive impact. Affected by the insufficient output of the major southwest hydropower province in the third quarter, the spot market transaction prices between provinces have risen significantly. We estimate that the average sales electricity price of the company's Q3 has risen to about 0.50 yuan / kWh, up significantly from 0.39 yuan / kWh in the first half of the year. Accordingly, it has led the company to significantly repair its profits when fuel costs are basically stable. The company's gross profit margin in the first three quarters of this year was 13.16%, a significant increase of 11.03 percentage points compared with the same period last year. At the same time, the main business of some shareholding companies is thermal power and thermal power sales, and the rise in electricity prices also drives the company's investment income to increase by 2011.1% or 277 million yuan to 139 million yuan compared with the same period last year, effectively supporting performance growth.
Cash flow repair led to an improvement in the debt ratio, and the expense rate continued to decline during the period. In terms of cash flow, the gradual recovery of the profitability of thermal power led to an increase in the company's operating cash flow. In the first three quarters, the company's operating cash flow was 1.828 billion yuan, an increase of 107.7% over the same period last year. In terms of asset-liability ratio, compared with the end of June this year, the company's debt ratio decreased by 0.87 percentage points to 66.50%. In terms of period expenses, the loose domestic financing policy led to the reduction of the company's financial expense rate by 0.2 percentage points to 3.9% compared with the same period last year, the company continued to improve its operating capacity, and the management expense rate was reduced by 0.5 percentage points to 4.5% compared with the same period last year, saving expenses for the company.
The current profit level is expected to be maintained, and the business structure is expected to continue to be optimized. In view of the current coal prices are still high, the company is expected to maintain high electricity prices, the current reasonable income level is expected to be maintained. Since the beginning of this year, the company has actively acquired and increased capital in new energy power generation enterprises to accelerate the layout of the new energy power generation field, and the company's business structure is expected to be continuously optimized.
Risk factors: a further sharp rise in coal prices squeezed the company's profits; the company's feed-in electricity price was lower than expected; and the company's power generation was lower than expected.
Profit forecast, valuation and rating: considering that the stimulating effect of the prosperity of spot demand and rising prices among provinces has passed, and the current coal price is still high, we adjust the company's EPS forecast to-0.01 EPS in 2022 2024 to-0.01 pound 0.31 yuan (the original forecast is 0.08 shock 0.16 pound 0.23 yuan), with reference to the company's historical valuation average over the past 5 years plus 1 standard deviation as the company's target PB. Give the company a target of 1.1x PB in 2023, corresponding to a target price of 6.10 yuan, and maintain a "buy" rating.