Main points of investment:
The demand for superalloys is strong, and the domestic supply is insufficient.
The basic situation of the industry is that the supply of high-standard superalloys in China falls short of demand. According to our estimation, the demand of superalloy in the fields of military aircraft, aviation, nuclear power, automobile and so on in 2021 is about 28000 tons / year, while the output of domestic mainstream enterprises is less than 20, 000 tons. Under the background of self-controllable supply chain, domestic substitution is urgent. In addition, there is a large demand for superalloys in the global civil aviation engine, gas turbine and automotive engine markets, and we expect the demand scale to reach more than 235000 tons per year in 2025. We believe that domestic enterprises that can enter the global industrial chain will greatly increase the shipping scale.
The company achieved revenue of 730 million yuan in 2021 for Ronda, a scarce company with both advanced technology and international vision, an increase of 35% over the same period last year, and a net profit of 70.208 million yuan, an increase of 13.02% over the same period last year. 08% revenue, reaching the end of the year to gradually start the volume. The company is always market-oriented, taking into account the advanced technology, quality reliability and operational economy in the industrial layout. We believe that with the gradual landing of the company's superalloy production capacity and the continuous expansion of downstream benchmarking customers, under the strategy of paying equal attention to the domestic and global markets, with the advantages of made in China, entering the international head customer supply chain is expected to share the development dividend of the global market.
The fund-raising project is mainly used to expand the production of aviation-grade products, and to strengthen the core competitiveness of the high-end field. The funds raised by IPO are mainly invested in the "technical transformation project with an additional annual output of 10,000 tons of aviation-grade superalloy" to further enhance the company's supply capacity of high-end products. By the end of 2021, the production capacity of cast superalloy and wrought superalloy is 2000 tons / year and 3000 tons / year respectively. After the fund-raising project and other production expansion projects are on the ground, the above production capacity can reach 5000 tons / year and 13000 tons / year respectively. Many brands of the company have been verified by customers and applied to the production and development of aero-engines and gas turbines. After the completion of the fund-raising project, the company's technological leadership can be transformed into market share leadership and the company's core competitiveness can be consolidated.
Profit forecast and valuation
We expect the company's operating income from 22 to 24 to be 14.39,21.83 and 3.032 billion yuan respectively, an increase of 98.33%, 51.62% and 38.93% respectively over the same period last year, and the net profit of returning to the mother is 1.92,3.07 and 448 million yuan respectively, divided into 85.49%. The P and S score increased by 172.96 yuan, 60.00% 0.78,1.24,1.82 yuan per share, and the corresponding PE was times higher than that in 48-30-20. Combining the relative and absolute valuation results, we give the company a 23-year 50x PE with a target price of 62.00 yuan, covering it for the first time and giving it a "buy" rating.
Risk hint
The market demand is lower than expected; the risk of uncertain progress and results of product introduction verification; the risk of intensified market competition; the risk of shortage of raw material supply; the risk of conflict of interest.
