百威亚太(01876.HK)2022年中报点评:中国区表现逐月恢复 韩国市场表现良好

Budweiser Brewing Company APAC Limited (01876.HK) 2022 China News comments: China's performance recovers month by month and the Korean market performs well

中信證券 ·  07/29/2022  · Researches

The company's 2022H1 revenue / EBITDA endogenesis increased by 2.7% Universe 0.4%. 2022Q2, China has improved month by month, and the opening rate of catering channels from April to July is 82%, 96%, 98%, 97%. After the lifting of epidemic control in South Korea, the market has recovered rapidly, and Cass and HANMAC have increased their market share in existing and non-existing beverage channels. India has achieved market expansion and increased market share, which is higher than expected. Looking forward to 2022H2, the company hopes to seek the optimization of sales expenses and management under cost pressure, and hopes to achieve profit margin flexibility throughout the year. Maintain the "overweight" rating.

2022H1 income / EBITDA endogenesis increased by 2.7% and 0.4%. 2022H1 achieved revenue of US $3.45 billion, year-on-year-0.7% / Endogenous + 2.7%, of which volume / price Endogenesis was-1.4% YoY-4.2% EBITDA US $1.14 billion, YoY-1.4% / Endogenous + 0.4%. 2022Q2 achieved revenue of US $1.82 billion, year-on-year-1.6% / endogenous + 3.7%, of which volume / price endogenous-0.4% Universe 4.1% Bitda is US $570 million, year-on-year-9.3% / endogenous-5.6%. The big difference between year-on-year and endogenous is mainly due to the impact of changes in the exchange rate between the US dollar and RMB.

Western Asia-Pacific: China has gradually recovered from the impact of the epidemic, and the high-end ton price has maintained its growth resilience. 2022H1 Asia Pacific West income Endogenous + 0.3% Personality Ebitda decreased 5.1% year on year, of which Q2 income Endogenous + 0.8% Bethda decreased 12.1% compared with the same period last year. Weight price point of view, 1) Volume: Asia-Pacific West 2022H1/22Q2 sales volume is endogenous-2.5% CPR 1.4% respectively. Among them, the Chinese market was affected by the epidemic 2022H1/22Q2 endogenous-5.5% Maxime 6.5% (22Q1-4.3%). After the deregulation of the epidemic in June, the overall brand achieved high-unit growth, while both ultra-high-end and high-end brands achieved double-digit growth; 2022H1 India grew strongly, and sales of high-end plus super-high-end brands doubled compared with the same period last year. 2) Price: 2022H1/22Q2 tonnage in the western Asia-Pacific region is endogenous + 2.9% and 2.2%, of which the tonnage price in the Chinese market is endogenous + 2.4% and 1.7% respectively. We believe that the overall Q2 performance in China is in line with market expectations, and the Indian region has benefited from economic development & the development of non-alcoholic liquor is good.

Eastern Asia-Pacific: both current and off-the-spot beverage channels have performed well, while core brands have maintained their growth in raising prices per ton. 2022H1 Asia-Pacific Eastern income Endogenous + 13.9% Personality EBITDA increased 39.2% compared with the same period last year, of which Q2 income Endogenous + 16.8% Q2% Endogenous income increased by 34.9% compared with the same period last year, and the scale effect was greatly released in the context of rapid sales growth. In terms of component price, 1) Volume: 2022H1/22Q2 sales in the eastern Asia-Pacific region are endogenous + 7.1% Universe 7.4% Cass White 22Q2 South Korean market achieved high unit growth, and good feedback from consumers listed on the market. 2) Price: the company's 2022H1/22Q2 tonnage price is endogenous + 6.4% 2022H1/22Q2 tonnage 8.7% Magne22Q2 tonnage price high-unit growth. The core category, including Casino and HANMAC beer, has increased by 7.7% in South Korea, and the price increase of high-end brands has even reached double digits, offsetting the downward pressure on tonnage prices brought about by the increase in the proportion of catering channels and the adjustment of wine duty, exceeding market expectations.

Looking to the future: the epidemic catalyzes the high-end market of beer, and the opening of current drinking channels in South Korea promotes income growth. In China, we expect the company to further promote its high-end strategy to comply with the general trend of the increase in middle-class consumers in China. In the short term, the company aims to increase the number of ultra-high-end / high-end brand cities to 450.70 + in 2022, and continue to increase the regional coverage of high-end and ultra-high-end brands. In terms of digital systems, the company has also made steady progress in the first half of the year, covering 55 cities / more than 30,000 monthly active users. In South Korea, the 2022H1 epidemic policy has been fully relaxed, and the company is expected to continue to increase market share in current and non-current drinking channels, use better packaging size and marketing strategies offline, and continue to create a new Cass image online. In terms of profitability, we expect raw material pressure to continue. The company hopes to achieve certain hedging through production efficiency, sales and management cost optimization, and improve profit margins as a whole.

Risk factors: macroeconomic pressure; local epidemic recurrence more than expected; high-end price belt competition intensified; July-September weather and temperature changes; food safety issues.

Investment advice: in the short term, China has gradually recovered from the epidemic, with a restaurant channel opening rate of 82%, 96%, 98% and 97% from April to July (according to the Budweiser Asia Pacific second-quarter performance exchange conference); the overall relaxation of the epidemic policy in South Korea has helped to increase profits and profits, and the acceptance of beer products in India has increased significantly. Taking into account the changes in the epidemic situation in 2022Q2 Shanghai, we downgrade the 2022 EPS forecast to HK $0.62 in 2023 (the original forecast is HK $0.69), and the new EPS in 2024 is forecast to be HK $0.84. In the medium-and long-term dimension, we continue to be optimistic about the improvement of the company's high-end permeability & ultra-high-end power, considering that the company's profits are expected to maintain steady and rapid growth in the next three years, compared with overseas leader PE (according to Bloomberg consensus expectations. Budweiser / Carlsberg 2022 PE is 27 PE 20 times) level, giving 2022 scarp 45 PE 40 times in 2023, maintaining the target price of HK $28 and maintaining the "overweight" rating.

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