The company's asset impairment increased significantly in 2021, resulting in lower-than-expected results. Following the gradual commissioning of new coal mines in Xinjiang and the increase in electricity prices, it is still expected to bring performance increments. However, taking into account the rapid increase in corporate costs, maintain the "overweight" rating.
In 2021, net profit decreased by 31.84% compared with the same period last year, and the scale of impairment increased significantly. The company's 2021 operating income is 101.56 / net profit is 409 million yuan (year-on-year changes + 32.69% Meltel 31.84%), EPS is 0.52 yuan.
Q4's net profit in a single quarter is-250 million yuan, which is mainly affected by the impairment of assets. The impairment of the company's assets in 2021 was 551 million yuan (an increase of + 4.7x over the same period last year). The profit distribution plan for 2021 is 0.155 yuan per share (including tax), with a dividend rate of 27% and a corresponding dividend rate of 1.51%.
Prices rose sharply in 2021, and the profit of thermal power fell further. In 2021, the company's coal production / sales volume were respectively 761.81x5.822 million tons (year-on-year change-9.99% Accord 8.44%), mainly due to the reduction of washed coal, sales of 4.322 million tons, a year-on-year decline of nearly 20%, the judgment is related to the reduction of mine production capacity and safety supervision factors.
In 2021, the average selling price of coal is 1158.62 yuan / ton (year-on-year + 25.44%), and the average sales cost is 728.84 yuan / ton (year-on-year + 22.84%). The decline in production and the rise in raw material costs have contributed to the increase in unit cost. In 2021, the company's electricity generation was 38.00 billion kilowatt-hours (year-on-year + 1.93%), and the profit of the power business dropped somewhat, with a unit electricity price of 0.50 yuan per kilowatt-hour (year-on-year + 29.93%), a kilowatt-hour cost of 0.50 yuan per kilowatt-hour (year-on-year) (+ 42.22%), and a gross profit margin of 1.53% (year-8.48pcts). The aluminum products processing business continues to lose money (gross profit margin is only 0.02%).
The output in Xinjiang region has room for growth, and the electric power plate has room for improvement. The company has two coal resources in Xinjiang, namely 106coal mine (with a production capacity of 1.8 million tons) and Weizigou coal mine (with a production capacity of 2.4 million tons), of which 106coal mine was officially put into production in 2019, and Weizigou Coal Mine obtained a mining license in September 2019. In the future, as the two mines reach production, the company's coal production will still increase. In terms of the power sector, the company's 2 × 350MW cogeneration project was formally connected to the grid in mid-2019, using coal gangue and other low calorific value coal to generate electricity.
Risk factors: product prices are greatly affected by the market; aluminum processing business continues to lose money.
Investment suggestion: considering the increase of the company's cost, we adjust the company's 2022-2023 EPS forecast to 1.13Universe 1.17 yuan (the original forecast is 1.16ppm 1.23 yuan), and add 0.99 yuan to the 2024 EPS forecast. The current stock price is 10.35 yuan, corresponding to the 22-year-old 24-year PE are all times as high as 9-9-11. According to the average valuation level of the industry, the company will be given a target price of 11 yuan, corresponding to 2022 PE10 times, to maintain the "overweight" rating.
