This report is read as follows:
Relying on the Yichang SASAC, the company is actively transforming its tourism business. The injection of assets into the three Gorges Dam scenic spot (planning stage) and business expansion are expected to bring new vitality to the company, and the prospect of follow-up business development exceeds market expectations.
Main points of investment:
For the first time, it will be given an "overweight" rating. It is estimated that the EPS for 2021-2023 will be 0.14 + 0.22 RMB, with a growth rate of 112%-55% and 29%. Based on the combined valuation of Pmax E and Pamp S, the target market value of 2023 will be 6.2 billion yuan, which is about 30 times that of Pamp E, and the target price will be 8.4 yuan. Give an overweight rating.
Relying on the State-owned assets Supervision and Administration Commission of Yichang City, the company has transformed from integrated transportation services to integrated tourism services and trade logistics services since 2010. The actual controller of the company is the Yichang City State-owned assets Supervision and Administration Commission, which was the first to operate road and waterway transportation. after the transformation to tourism and trade logistics services, before the epidemic in 2019, integrated transport services / tourism integrated services and trade logistics services accounted for 72% of revenue, 15% and 16%, and gross profit margins were 7%, 32%, 18%, respectively. The revenue of 2021Q1-3 is + 18.8%, which is 96% of that of the same period in 2019, and the performance is 6633 yuan / + 940%, which is 61% of that of the same period in 2019.
Tourism service ploughs two dams and one gorge, and the follow-up growth is expected to exceed expectations. Relying on the resources of the three Gorges, the company has successively developed "two dams and one gorge" elite tours, night tours of the Yangtze River and other tourist products. As of 2021 H1, there are 5 luxury sightseeing cruise ships, 7 ordinary cruise ships and so on. Development direction: 1) it has been announced that it plans to purchase the development and operation assets of the three Gorges Dam, which is expected to expand the resources of the three Gorges; joint venture to form peak double gorges products, etc.; 2) raise funds for the construction of the three Gorges cruise ship center project, layout of pure electric sightseeing boats, increase the cruise ship capacity of "two dams and one gorge", etc.; 3) reach Nanjing and Wenzhou markets.
The effect of the transformation of comprehensive transport services is beginning to show, and the second phase of trade and logistics is expected to contribute to the increase. The company promotes the transformation of transportation business by subdividing the transport scene and enriching the business format of passenger stations. In addition, the first phase of the logistics center of Yichang East Railway Station has been completed and put into production, and the second phase is expected to contribute to the increase gradually.
Risk tips: acquisition uncertainty; safe operation risk; market downside risk.
