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华侨城A(000069):文旅地产龙头 受益供给侧改革

OCT A (000069): Cultural tourism real estate leaders benefit from supply-side reforms

海通證券 ·  Apr 3, 2022 00:00  · Researches

Asset impairment superimposed by the decline in gross profit margin results in the increase of current performance income without profit. 1) in 2021, the company achieved operating income of 102.6 billion yuan, an increase of 25% over the same period last year, a net profit of 7.2 billion yuan, a decrease of 55% over the same period last year, and a net profit of 3.8 billion yuan, a decrease of 70% over the same period last year.

2) from the perspective of itemized business, the income of comprehensive tourism business was 43.3 billion yuan, which was basically the same as that of the previous year, with a gross profit margin of 32%, a decrease of 10 percentage points over the same period last year. The income of the real estate business was 59 billion yuan, an increase of 58% over the same period last year, and the gross profit margin was 21%, down 38 percentage points from the same period last year. During the year, the board of directors recommended that a cash dividend of 0.1 yuan (including tax) be paid to all shareholders, instead of using the provident fund to increase their share capital.

3) the company lost 2.17 billion of the impairment of bad debts, inventory, goodwill and so on.

Strictly abide by the three red lines, sound financial development. The company's operating cash flow is healthy and stable, and has maintained a net inflow since 2020, reaching 19.2 billion yuan in 2021, meeting the overall investment and operational needs of the company, and maintaining a virtuous circle of investment and rebate. In 2021, the company comprehensively used direct financing, bond issuance, equity financing, debt protection plan, supply chain financing and other means to achieve financing of 58.625 billion yuan, with an average financing cost of 4.46%, which is at a lower level in the same industry.

The main business is brilliant. 1) Tourism: in 2021, the company's 27 scenic spots, 28 hotels, 1 travel agency, 7 open tourism areas and 1 tourism performing arts received a total of 77.979 million tourists, which was 182% in 2020 and returned to 150% in 2019; excluding the newly added projects in 2021, it is 117% in 2020 and 96% in 2019, and the recovery is far higher than the industry average.

2) Real estate: in 2021, the company acquired 23 new projects, with a new land area of 2.58 million square meters and a capacity of 4.35 million square meters. In 2021, the company's sales situation is relatively stable, with a total contracted sales area of 3.99 million square meters and contracted sales of 82.5 billion yuan.

3) property management: the company has added a total of 4.42 million square meters of property reserve management area and 3.73 million square meters of new property management area. at present, the overall management project covers an area of more than 200square kilometers and the construction area is more than 20 million square meters.

Investment advice: "better than the market" rating. The current round of cultural and tourism real estate industry is subject to the double impact of the epidemic and the regulation of the real estate industry, the competition pattern of the industry and the advantages of leading companies in the later stage will be clearly reflected. We believe that the company belongs to the leading company of central enterprises in the culture and tourism industry, and is expected to seize the market opportunity to seize the potential opportunity. We predict that the company's EPS will be 0.52 yuan per share in 2022, and give the company a valuation of 17-19 times PE in 2022. The corresponding reasonable market capitalization is 732-81.8 billion yuan, and the corresponding reasonable value range is 8.92-9.97 yuan. Risk hint: the real estate industry is facing the risk of overall shrinking. There is an epidemic impact in the literature and tourism industry.

The translation is provided by third-party software.


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