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世茂股份(600823):浩然入世 风华正茂

海通證券 ·  Nov 8, 2020 00:00  · Researches

Key investment points: The company is a comprehensive commercial real estate platform under Shimao Group. The company is positioned as a leading enterprise in the specialized sales and operation of integrated commercial real estate. The direct controlling shareholder of the company is Fengying International, which holds 43.37% of the shares, and the indirect controlling shareholder is Shimao Group (00813.HK, which mainly develops large-scale integrated real estate projects). Mr. Xu Rongmao's total indirect holding ratio of the company reached 41.54%. Shimao Group, the majority shareholder, currently has a development scale of the top 10 enterprises in the real estate industry, with rich development experience and strong management strength. The layout is a Tier 1 and 2 core city, with obvious advantages in financial structure and land storage. 1) The company has established a business structure of “mainly commercial real estate, supported by diversified businesses” and a business model of “leasing and sales, diversified collaboration”, involving comprehensive real estate development and sales, commercial property management and management, and diversified investments, including commercial (commercial real estate and Shimao Plaza), housing and other business formats. The company operates large-scale commercial complexes and residential projects in more than 30 Tier 1 and 2 cities across the country. 2) The overall average financing cost of 1H2020 companies was controlled at 5.46%. The balance ratio and balance ratio after excluding advance payments remained at 63.6% and 61.0% respectively, and interest-bearing liabilities were below 30% for a long time. 3) The total construction area of the 1H2020 company's real estate reserve projects under construction and proposed projects is 2022 million square meters, and the total equity construction area is 1.08 million square meters. Five-year development strategy: “100 billion 600823”, with the vision of “becoming a commercial real estate operator with unique influence”. 1) The company plans to sign 100 billion yuan in sales contracts by 2024, and strive to reach more than 60 billion yuan in post-equity sales contracts. 2) It is hoped that in five years, the company will be able to rank among the top ten in the domestic commercial real estate sector, and that the asset-light business management platform will be able to operate and manage more than 100 projects. 3) The “Announcement on the holding of the Company's 2020 Interim Results Conference” revealed that the company's contract target for this year is 27 billion yuan. To reach the sales target of 100 billion yuan, the annualized growth over the next 5 years is about 40%. Investment advice. Lay out Tier 1 and 2 cities to create leading commercial real estate, with a “superior to the market” rating. The company is a comprehensive real estate listed company under Shimao Group that integrates various business segments such as integrated commercial real estate development, sales, operation and management, etc. The company adheres to a diversified approach combining bidding and mergers and acquisitions, focusing on economically developed Tier 1 and 2 cities and strong third- and fourth-tier cities in the Yangtze River Delta, Bohai Rim, Fujian and Greater Bay Area. As of the end of the 1H2020 reporting period, the company held a total of 18.99 million square meters of land reserves under construction/pending construction. Considering that the company “plans that by 2024, the company's sales contracts will reach 100 billion yuan, with a compound annual growth rate of about 40%”, we expect the company's EPS in 2020-2022 to be 0.65 yuan, 0.84 yuan, and 1.18 yuan. Referring to the dynamic PEG valuation value of comparable companies 0.63 times, we gave the company a dynamic PEG valuation range of 0.45-0.5 times in 2020. The compound growth rate of the company's net profit over the next three years is 22.24%. The corresponding reasonable value range for the company is 6.51-7.23 Yuan, maintaining the company's “superior to the market” rating. Risk warning: The company's rental and sales business faces the risk of interest rate hikes and policy regulation, as well as the risk of economic downturn.

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