Event: on the evening of October 14, 2020, the company issued a forecast for the first three quarters of 2020, in which the results for the first three quarters were 1.02-108 million, an increase of 16-22% over the same period last year, and a revenue forecast of 1.058 billion, with an increase of 43.67% over the same period last year.
The comments are as follows:
The performance is dragged down by foreign exchange and other expenses, and the revenue end is growing rapidly. On the evening of October 14, 2020, the company issued a forecast of results for the first three quarters of 2020, in which the results for the first three quarters were 1.02-108 million, an increase of 16-22% over the same period last year, and the split Q3 was about 0.14-20 million in a single quarter, down 31% from 52% over the same period last year. The drag on the performance is as follows: (1) Q3 suffered an exchange loss of 20 million caused by a sharp appreciation of the offshore RMB by more than 4%, an increase of 26 million over the same period last year, which became the main influencing factor. (2) the expenses related to the expansion of production capacity in Vietnam, such as tooling, have increased; while the revenue side, according to the company's estimate for the first three quarters, is about 1.058 billion, an increase of 43.67% compared with the same period last year. Q3 single-quarter revenue is expected to be 413 million, up 66% from the same period last year. Looking forward to Q4, we believe that the exchange loss is relatively limited, while the revenue end Q4 benefits from overseas Christmas and other peak season demand, as well as Apple Inc third-party charger authorized manufacturers and key customer-driven month-on-month is expected to accelerate.
Apple Inc's new machine cancels the fast charge of Inbox, and Haineng benefits from the outbreak of Apple Inc's third-party brands. At 1: 00 a.m. on October 14, 2020, Apple Inc released four 5G mobile phones official announcement canceled charger Inbox to dispel some of the previous uncertainty, Apple Inc afterloading fast charge authorized brand + ODM manufacturer is expected to usher in an outbreak, according to our previous report estimated that Apple Inc mobile phone charger retail ODM market size of about 100 billion, after Hai Neng Industries obtained Apple Inc MFI qualification We expect to benefit from the outbreak of demand from Apple Inc authorized third parties such as Anke Innovation and Belkin, as well as unauthorized third parties such as Amazon.Com Inc. In addition, the company's current gross profit margin of the fast charging adapter is only 14%, and the profitability will be significantly improved after the follow-up scale (the average gross margin of the industry research industry is 20%).
Wire harness and converter in the high-speed development, long-term build retail ODM platform. For Haineng Industry, we believe that the company is not only fast charging, the long-term model is based on customers and R & D, certification platform, to build a retail ODM platform leader, the company from converters, wire harness to 2018 cut into the power adapter, TWS and other categories are based on the diversified needs of downstream retail customers, looking forward to the next few years The company is optimistic about the medium-and high-speed growth brought by the continuous expansion of downstream category signal converters, fast charging, type c, acoustic TWS and so on.
Performance forecast and valuation: we maintain the company's revenue of 16.20 yuan and 2.278 billion yuan in 2020-2021, an increase of 47% and 41% respectively over the same period last year. The results are 1.8% (down 18%) and 320 million yuan (down 3%), respectively, an increase of 51% and 78% respectively over the same period last year, corresponding to a PE of 39 and 22 in 2020-2021. The company's revenue continues to grow high, and the growth logic remains unchanged. Consider the growth of 35-40PE in 2021 and maintain the "buy" rating.
Risk hint: exchange loss; category expansion is lower than expected
