Main points of the report:
The company is the industry benchmark of rail non-metallic fasteners, multi-dimensional development to enhance performance elasticity company ploughing the field of high-speed rail fasteners for nearly 15 years, the main business is rail fasteners non-metallic components and electronic components accessories, of which non-metallic fasteners account for 70% of the revenue. The company has participated in the R & D task of fastener non-metallic components and the drafting of industry standards, and is the industry benchmark in this field. At present, it has supported all domestic high-speed rail fastener integrated suppliers, and the market share has been maintained at 13% Mel 16%. The company was established in 2019 to develop a complete system of urban rail transit fasteners. With years of technical and geographical advantages, the company is expected to benefit deeply from urban rail construction and greater performance flexibility. 2020H1 affected by the epidemic, fastener delivery and revenue recognition have been delayed, the company's performance is expected to improve significantly from the third quarter.
High-speed rail construction has embarked on a new journey, the company's non-metallic fastener depth income fastener industry directly benefits from rail transit construction, in which the non-metallic part is the core component to ensure track accuracy and smoothness. In August 20, the National Railway Group issued the outline of Railway advance Planning for a New era of Traffic Power, which mapped out a new blueprint for China's railway construction. By 2035, the mileage of high-speed rail will reach 70,000 km. Based on this, we estimate that the total demand for high-speed rail fasteners in 20-22 is about 3126.3, 3364.8 and 35.075 million groups, and the corresponding market size of the non-metallic part is 20.4,21.50 and 2.19 billion yuan. The company has a stable market share in the non-metallic field of high-speed rail fasteners, and the non-metallic fastener business is expected to continue to benefit.
Enter the whole system of fasteners of urban rail transit and develop at home and abroad.
Fushikou, a wholly owned subsidiary of the company, is based in Zhejiang Province and is committed to developing the intercity rail transit business in Zhejiang metropolitan area. As of August 20, Fushikoukou has continuously won four intercity rail transit projects, and the business scope has been expanded from non-metallic fasteners to complete system supply. According to Zhejiang intercity track planning, a number of projects will be centrally opened to traffic in 2021, so the demand for fasteners has become the peak in the past year or two. We estimate that the demand for new fasteners for intercity rail in Zhejiang Province will be 126.2, 89.8 and 789000 sets in 20-22, and the corresponding market size of fastener system will reach 2.31,1.61 and 139 million yuan. The company has regional advantages in Zhejiang, can get a larger market share, will benefit deeply. As the sales platform of the overseas fastener consortium FSCR (jointly established by the main R & D and manufacturing units of high-speed rail fasteners), Fushi buckle is actively laying out its overseas business. At present, it has been ordered by all the light rail lines in Kuala Lumpur, with a value of about 22 million RMB, and there is huge room for growth in the future.
Investment advice and profit Forecast
Considering the expansion of intercity rail and overseas fastener business by the subsidiary Fushi buckle, it is estimated that in 20-22, the company's revenue will be 303max 448x621 million respectively, the net profit from its parent will be RMB 1.95 million, respectively, and the EPS will be RMB 0.46max, respectively, giving the company a "buy" investment rating for the first time.
Risk hint
The progress of infrastructure projects is not as expected; the construction of intercity tracks is not as expected; and overseas outbreaks affect business development and product delivery.