Event: the company disclosed the 2020 semi-annual report, Q2 performance improved and recovered, online channels rapidly expanded 2020H1 to achieve operating income of 860 million yuan (- 17.78%), realized return net profit of 37.5999 million yuan (- 68.96%), deducted non-return net profit of 30.7149 million yuan (- 72.87%). In a single quarter, 2020Q2 achieved operating income of 490 million yuan (- 11.75%), narrowing and improving compared with 20Q1's 24.59% year-on-year decline. 20Q2's homed net profit was 43.2632 million yuan (- 47.73%). The profit side successfully turned losses into profits, and Q2 performance improved significantly compared with Q1.
From a business point of view, 2020H1's main footwear business realized revenue of 750 million yuan (- 13.59%) and net profit of 21.7012 million yuan; small technology Internet digital marketing business realized revenue of 109 million yuan (- 38.34%) and net profit of 15.8987 million yuan, mainly due to the reduction of 20H1 customers' online advertising budget.
Channel performance: online channel expanded rapidly, C2M+MCN store-factory integration innovative business model promoted 2020H1 online channel revenue to 226 million yuan (+ 41.77%), achieved rapid growth, online business share increased 11.77pct to 30.15%, the company actively upgraded to create C2M+MCN store-factory integration innovative business model, with user portraits, user demand, market trends, public and private domain flow analysis for commodity selection preheating and pre-sale To achieve flexible supply, to achieve the coordination of production and marketing supply and demand. The revenue of offline channels was 524 million yuan (- 26.05%), of which the revenue of direct channels was 469 million yuan (- 24.21%) and that of franchisees was 55.1595 million yuan (- 38.71%). The company promoted the optimization and upgrading of offline channels and accelerated the implementation of the store replacement plan. the total number of stores at the end of the 20H1 period was 1585, a net decrease of 146.
Under the influence of the new accounting standards, the gross profit margin increased significantly, and the scale of inventory and accounts receivable reduced 2020H1 gross profit margin to 61.38% (+ 6.25pct), of which Q2 gross profit margin reached 63.99% (+ 5.81pct). The increase in gross profit margin is mainly due to the fact that the new accounting standards adjust the deduction point of shopping malls from operating costs to sales expenses.
The sales / management / R & D / financial expense rate of 2020H1 Company reached 38.66% (+ 11.04pct) / 12.10% (+ 1.56pct) / 2.68% (+ 0.86pct) / 0.26% (+ 0.15pct) respectively. The sharp increase in sales expense rate was mainly due to the impact of the new accounting standards. After the reduction, the sales rate was 25.14% (- 2.48pct), and the sales rate decreased slightly. Inventory 2020H1 is 366 million yuan (- 17.85%); accounts receivable is 207 million yuan (- 30.95%). We believe that the reduction in the scale of inventory and accounts receivable is mainly due to the reduction of the overall business scale of 2020H1 company by the epidemic, and the small number of new inventory goods and accounts receivable.
To maintain the "buy" rating, taking into account the semi-annual performance report and the role of the company's online channel expansion in promoting performance recovery in the future, we slightly downgrade the 2020 profit forecast and appropriately raise the 2021-2022 profit forecast. It is estimated that the company will achieve a net profit of 1.51 pounds in 2020-2022. The company is expected to achieve a net profit of 1.51 billion yuan (the original value is 2.28pm, 2.2954 million), a year-on-year growth rate of-27.06% and 61.21% 13.59%. From 2020 to 2022, the EPS score ratio was 0.35, 0.57, 0.64 yuan, and the corresponding PE was 26.04, 16.15, 14.22 times.
Risk tips: offline store upgrade is not as expected; fashion women's shoes market demand is weak; online channel growth is slowing down; channel fees are rising.