Summary of the report:
The strategic deployment of "double cycle" is of medium-and long-term significance. As a new engine of import and export trade, cross-border e-commerce will become an important thrust of the economic "external cycle", and the industry will usher in the dual catalysis of policy and epidemic situation. As a leading enterprise with dual brands of products and channels and leading supply chain management capabilities, Cross-Border will seize the development opportunities of the industry to achieve high revenue and profit growth.
Cross-border e-commerce is an important engine of "external circulation", brand and supply chain will be the key to the success of enterprises. Cross-border e-commerce has become an important engine of import and export trade, and exports account for nearly 50%, of which B2C export cross-border e-commerce is particularly explosive, and we are optimistic to maintain a high growth rate of more than 20% in the next three years. At present, the export cross-border e-commerce B2C field is scattered, and the high logistics costs and platform usage fees are important factors that limit the profitability of cross-border e-commerce enterprises. In the future, enterprises with brand products that preemptively occupy the minds of overseas consumers and strong supply chain management to reduce costs will gain a larger share in the industry.
Epidemic situation + policy catalysis industry to accelerate upward, export cross-border e-commerce to meet the opportunity. The epidemic hinders population mobility but promotes the migration of offline shopping to online shopping, the penetration of online shopping increases, and we have observed a rapid increase in the flow of export cross-border e-commerce websites. In addition, the national support for cross-border e-commerce has been further increased, and the establishment of 46 new comprehensive pilot areas for cross-border e-commerce and the pilot work on the export supervision of cross-border e-commerce enterprises are expected to accelerate the development of cross-border e-commerce exports. Cross-border e-commerce industry ushered in policy and epidemic catalysis.
Cross-border e-commerce leader, leading the industry in brand and supply chain management capabilities. The company's B2C export cross-border e-commerce transaction market ranks first, and the two proprietary websites rank among the top 25 overseas brands, and have cultivated a series of leading cross-border e-commerce brands, with their own products accounting for nearly 40% of total revenue.
The company takes the lead in the layout of overseas warehouses in the industry, the logistics efficiency is fast for 2-3 days, the proportion of logistics expenses to income is decreasing year by year, and the supply chain capacity industry takes the lead. The company's three major subsidiaries of Global Tesco, Patronson and Youyi e-commerce are all leaders in their respective fields. The company's inventory plan mentioned that equity adjustments have been landed, and under the catalysis of policy and epidemic situation, it is expected to usher in an outbreak of performance.
Profit forecast: the company's EPS from 2020 to 2022 is expected to be 0.42 yuan, 0.51 yuan and 0.59 yuan respectively, corresponding to 17x, 14x and 12x PE from 2020 to 2022, covering for the first time and giving a "buy" rating.
Risk tips: increased competition in the industry, increased trade frictions, inventory impairment risk, market expansion is not as expected.
