The company publishes its semi-annual report for 2020. 2020H1 realized operating income of 1.839 billion yuan (- 25%), net profit of 28.47 million yuan (- 58%), and non-return net profit of 13.46 million yuan (- 78%). Among them, the non-return net profit of Q2 in a single quarter is-30.44 million yuan, and the loss is mainly due to the greater impact on filament exports and the increase in Q2 R & D expenses.
The exit of the filament was blocked and the bottom of the spandex rebounded. Viscose filament 20H1 is in weak balance as a whole, with an average price of 37144 yuan / ton (- 2%). At the same time, the price difference has increased due to the decrease in the price of dissolved pulp.
However, due to the large number of exports of viscose filament in China, it was obviously affected by the overseas epidemic situation after June, the price declined rapidly and the inventory accumulated more. Spandex 20H1 affected by the price reduction of raw materials continues to hit a new low, the average price of 40D spandex is 29200 yuan / ton (- 10%), but the spandex price difference has not declined further. We think that the mask and earband of Q2 and the summer sports fabric all have more than expected factors. At present, spandex inventory has fallen to the normal level of 40 days. Under the rebound of raw material prices and the gradual recovery of foreign trade orders, spandex prices have rebounded at the bottom recently. The company's operating performance in the first half of the year is in line with the situation of the industry, viscose filament sales declined, revenue fell 44%, gross profit margin increased 2.30pct; spandex premium, revenue fell 5%, gross profit margin increased 4.94pct.
The project of 20,000 tons of viscose filament (the first phase of 10,000 tons) is progressing smoothly. The project invests a total of 1.5 billion yuan to build 20, 000 tons of viscose filament. Due to the use of existing viscose staple equipment in the original solution workshop and acid station, the investment is smaller than that of other enterprises. Among them, the first phase invested 600 million yuan to build 10,000 tons of viscose filament, with 88% progress as of June 30, and is expected to be put into production by the end of 2020.
Lessel fiber in China Textile Institute is worth looking forward to. China Textile Institute Green Fiber is funded by China Textile Research Institute (51%) and Xinxiang Chemical Fiber (33%). It mainly produces Lessel fiber.
Lessel fiber solvent can be recycled, fiber feel high-grade, the world is mainly monopolized by Lanjing Group, China still needs a large number of imports. At present, China Textile Institute green fiber Lessel fiber production capacity of 30, 000 tons, 2019 net profit of 15.03 million yuan, and has begun the construction of the third phase of 60, 000-ton projects, we are optimistic about the follow-up production capacity and profits continue to release.
Investment suggestion: we forecast that the company's annual return net profit in 2020-21-22 is 104x6xpx 2.39 million yuan, EPS 0.08company0.15x0.19 yuan, corresponding to the current price PE42.7/23.9/18.6 times, to maintain the "overweight" rating.
Risk hint: the price of viscose filament and spandex is declining, and the progress of new production capacity release is not as expected.