Event: the company intends to introduce state-owned capital holding. The company announced that Weng Yaogen and his co-actors, Zhou Wenyuan, intend to transfer 26% of the company's total shares to Sichuan Port and Aviation Investment Group Co., Ltd. or its designated affiliated parties, of which Weng Yaogen and his co-actors transferred 217 million shares, accounting for 21.58% of the total share capital, while Zhou Wanyuan transferred 45 million shares, accounting for 4.42% of the total share capital. When the equity transfer is completed, the controlling shareholder and the actual controller of the company will be changed.
Take advantage of state-owned capital resources / industrial advantages to enter a new stage of growth. This equity transfer, the introduction of state-owned capital holding, will further optimize and improve the company's ownership structure and enhance corporate governance capacity. On the other hand, the downstream port customers of the company's automatic container handling equipment are basically the background of state-owned assets, and many customers of state-owned enterprises are also connected downstream of CNC machine tools. This time, the introduction of state-owned capital holding is expected to effectively promote the sustained growth of the main industry with the help of its resources and industrial advantages.
The automatic container handling equipment has entered the volume stage, and the technological transformation and upgrading strengthen the manufacturing advantage. The investment in domestic port automation construction is gradually increasing, and the automation of yard operation system is the basis of the development of automatic wharf.
According to our estimation, based on the container throughput of 226 million TEU of domestic ports in 2018, the demand for automatic track cranes in domestic ports is about 5424, corresponding to a market space of nearly 100 billion yuan. In March 2019, the company signed an order contract with Singapore Port Group for 28 fully automatic rail container leading cranes with outstanding brand advantages. With the help of the resources and industrial advantages of Port and Shipping Group, the company's industrial status of automatic container handling equipment is expected to be further enhanced.
5G new commercial opportunities have led to the growth of existing CNC machine tools with consumer electronics / communications as the main applications, and the strategy of medium and large machine tools has been steadily advanced. 5G commercial enterprises have entered the acceleration period, and it is estimated that more than 500000 new 5G base stations will be built in 2020, and the demand for processing precision components such as radiators will grow rapidly. The company has developed a series of vertical machining centers such as 850HII and 1066HC for the processing of 5G base station heat sink, which has covered the first-and second-class suppliers of major domestic communication equipment enterprises. On the consumer electronics side, 5G is expected to drive the trend of replacement. High-speed drilling centers for the production of metal frames are expected to grow. In addition, the company continues to promote the development strategy of medium and large specification high-precision machine tools, Chongqing Phase I "annual production of 5000 CNC machine tools" project, site construction has been completed, long-term growth is expected.
Profit forecast and valuation. It is estimated that the return net profit of the company from 2020 to 2022 is 4.28,5.50 and 716 million yuan respectively, and the corresponding EPS is 0.42,0.55,0.71 yuan per share respectively. Maintain the "overweight" rating.
Risk tips: stainless steel supply chain business integration development is not as expected; fully automated track crane sales are not as expected; CNC machine tool business growth is not as expected; this paper estimates are based on certain assumptions.