Shenxiong glucose injection, sodium hyaluronate injection, Xinnaoning and other varieties on sale are expected to provide the company with stable cash flow:
The existing products cover cardio-cerebrovascular, anti-tumor, orthopedic diseases, women and children, digestive system, anti-infection and other areas, which is expected to provide a stable cash flow for the company. Among them, the company's Shenxiong glucose injection achieved sample hospital sales of 134 million yuan in 2019, an increase of 6.72% over the same period last year. In 2020, this variety entered the health insurance catalogue of most provinces, and the company focused on developing grade hospitals, private hospitals, county and below medical markets, and its sales are expected to continue to grow steadily. The sales of sodium hyaluronate injection in the sample hospital in 2019 was 260 million yuan, an increase of 4.50% over the same period last year. The market share of biochemical industry, Shandong Bausch Lomb, Shanghai Jingfeng and Haohai were 36.04%, 34.97%, 14.61% and 13.10%, respectively. Jingfeng medicine's market share ranks in the top three; Xinnaoning is the company's exclusive variety, and the competition pattern is good. Sample hospital sales of 48.3158 million yuan were achieved in 2019.
Flurbiprofen axetil injection is effective in relieving postoperative and cancer pain. Flurbiprofen axetil is expected to be approved for market in 2020:
The amount of surgery and the number of cancer patients are increasing year by year, which is expected to promote the growth of market demand for postoperative and cancer analgesia. In terms of postoperative analgesia, the number of inpatients in China has increased from 32.729 million in 2011 to 53.654 million in 2017, and the continuous increase in the number of operations is expected to lead to the growth of the market for postoperative analgesia; in terms of cancer analgesia, according to the statistics of the National Cancer Center, the incidence of malignant tumors has maintained an annual growth rate of about 3.9% in the past 10 years, and the rise in the number of cancer patients is expected to promote the growth of the market demand for cancer analgesia. Flurbiprofen is widely used in postoperative and cancer pain treatment, and its sample hospital sales increased from 577 million yuan in 2014 to 885 million yuan in 2019, with a CAGR of about 8.92%. In 2019, flurbiprofen axetil injection from Beijing Tade and Wuhan Daan occupied 90.38% and 9.62% market share respectively, and the competition pattern was good. According to the company announcement, the company's flurbiprofen axetil injection is in the stage of replenishment data and development site inspection. According to the current research and development progress, production approval is expected to be obtained this year. Flurbiprofen axetil injection is expected to become an important increment of the company's sales growth in the future.
The research and development of cross-linked sodium hyaluronate injection is progressing smoothly, and it is expected to gradually replace the short-acting preparation after listing:
The company's major research variety of cross-linked sodium hyaluronate injection is mainly used in the treatment of osteoarthritis.
The treatment stage of osteoarthritis is divided into basic treatment, drug treatment and surgical treatment from shallow to deep.
Among the drugs injected into articular cavity, sodium hyaluronate has high safety and efficacy at the same time, and has become one of the most commonly used drugs in the stage of bone and joint drug treatment. The sales of sodium hyaluronate injection in orthopaedics continued to grow, and the sales revenue continued to grow from 1.241 billion yuan in 2012 to 5.038 billion yuan in 2018. Compared with the traditional non-cross-linked sodium hyaluronate injection, the cross-linked sodium hyaluronate injection has a longer half-life and longer retention time in vivo, which can effectively reduce the frequency and improve the quality of patients. According to the company announcement, the company's cross-linked sodium hyaluronate injection is in the stage of clinical phase I summary and II clinical start-up. According to the current research and development progress, the product is expected to be approved to market in 2023, and is expected to gradually replace the current short-acting preparations on the market.
The blockbuster biological drug JZB01 is expected to become an effective drug for the treatment of heart failure.
Jingfeng Pharmaceutical's recombinant human B-type natriuretic peptide (JZB01) for injection was approved in 2018 and is expected to apply for production in 2023 according to the clinical progress disclosed in the company's announcement (completion of phase I clinical sample production). According to the 2018 report on the diagnosis and treatment of heart failure in China, recombinant human natriuretic peptide is an effective drug for the treatment of acute heart failure. Compared with traditional diuretics, nitrates and sodium nitroprusside, recombinant human natriuretic peptide significantly improves the related symptoms of hemodynamics and dyspnea, and has higher safety, so it has become a widely recognized common drug in the field of heart failure. In the future, the sales space of JZB01 is expected to match the freeze-dried recombinant human brain natriuretic peptide (rhBNP) of Tibet Pharmaceutical Co., Ltd. in 2019, the sales of freeze-dried Recombinant Human brain natriuretic Peptide in sample hospitals reached 452 million yuan, an increase of 54.05% over the same period last year.
Investment suggestion: from 2020 to 2022, the revenue is expected to be 1.983 billion yuan, 2.485 billion yuan and 3.014 billion yuan respectively, up 47.51%, 25.33% and 21.30% respectively over the same period last year; and the net profit of returning to the mother is 68 million yuan, 144 million yuan and 214 million yuan respectively, up 107.67%, 112.52% and 48.92% respectively over the same period last year. Give a Buy-An investment rating for the first time.
Risk hint: the risk of failure of drug research and development; the risk of drug price reduction is greater than expected; and the development of COVID-19 epidemic situation has a significant negative impact on the economy.