Summary:
According to Zhongtian's letter of intent for hardcover IPO, the company's IPO expects to raise 782 million yuan, offering underwriting and other expenses totaling 146.2762 million yuan, totaling 928.2762 million yuan. By the time the report was submitted (the day before the purchase), the static PE of the company corresponding to the China Securities Industry (E50) was 18.53 times for nearly one month. In the audited 2019 annual report, the net profit attributable to the owner of the parent company is 178.0302 million yuan after deducting non-recurrent profit and loss, and the diluted EPS is 1.18 yuan. It plans to issue 37.85 million shares, with a price of 24.52 yuan per share based on the total amount of capital raised, and the corresponding PE is 20.85 times, which is higher than that of the industry PE. There is a risk of a delay of three weeks. In the case of no postponement of the issue, the corresponding issue price is 21.78 yuan according to the industry PE18.53 times the day before the deadline for purchase.
We expect Zhongtian hardcover inquiry range of 21.78 yuan to 24.52 yuan, according to 24.52 yuan to participate in the inquiry to avoid time to eliminate, it is recommended to apply for the first time.
Zhongtian hardcover is a leading domestic construction batch fine decoration service enterprise, which has a strong market competitiveness in the field of fine decoration. The company's revenue has grown rapidly in the past three years, with year-on-year growth rates of 45.08% and 71.66% in 2018 and 2019 respectively, significantly higher than those of listed companies in the same industry. The company's main customers are Vanke Real Estate, Midea Real Estate, Sunac China and other domestic well-known real estate companies, and sales to the top five customers accounted for 62.03% of total revenue in 2019. China's fine decoration market has developed rapidly in recent years, maintaining an overall growth rate of more than 35% from 2016 to 2018, but there is still much room for growth as a whole. Since 2017, the long-term rental apartment industry has developed rapidly and may become a new profit growth point for fine decoration business in the future. The fine decoration industry is currently in a highly decentralized competition pattern, and the concentration will increase rapidly in the future. benefiting from the rich experience in the industry and the customer resources of the leading enterprises in the real estate industry, the company's market share is expected to further increase.
Considering the disclosure of the prospectus and the above analysis, we choose 603030.SH, 002081.SZ, 002375.SZ, 002482.SZ, 002781.SZ and 002789.SZ as comparable companies with an average price-to-earnings ratio of 34.36 in 2019. We expect the issue price of Zhongtian hardcover to be between 21.78 yuan and 24.52 yuan, which is lower than the average PE of comparable companies. Together, it is estimated that the total share capital after the issue will not exceed 151 million shares, and the market capitalization after the issue is expected to be 3.297 billion-3.712 billion yuan.
Risk tips: (1) the pace of IPO issuance is delayed by force majeure; (2) the macroeconomic downturn and downstream real estate market fluctuations affect demand.