What happened: the company disclosed that in the first quarterly report of 2020, the company achieved operating income of 4.226 billion in the first quarter, up 24.20% from the same period last year; net profit from home was 141 million, up 13.75% from the same period last year; and 129 million after deducting non-return net profit, up 6% from the same period last year.
Under the new revenue criteria, costs have moved, with a gross profit margin of 5.6% in the first quarter. The company's gross profit margin in the first quarter of 2020 was 5.6%, down 2.82 percentage points from the first quarter of 2019. The reason for the decline in gross profit margin is that since 2020, the company has implemented new revenue guidelines, and the cost of commissioned processing transportation and miscellaneous expenses has been changed from previous sales expenses to operating costs. the impact of this item is about 56 million yuan. if this is deducted, the comparable gross profit margin will be about 7%.
Under the special circumstances of epidemic prevention and control, the company has advantages in the construction and management of special railway lines and the operation of container assets, and the special container business is expected to support growth in the first quarter. According to the quarterly report, the decline in inventory in the first quarter of 2020 was mainly due to the reduction of commissioned processing products; at the same time, combined with the annual report in 2019, the gross profit of the company's railway special container business accounted for 31.71%. The gross margin of railway freight and port logistics business accounted for 36.94%, and the gross margin of entrusted processing business accounted for 22.23%. The gross profit margins of the above three businesses were 18.33%, 15.5% and 1.89%, respectively. In addition, at the end of 2019, the total number of special boxes in the company reached 92000. With the superposition of the three messages, we believe that the development of railway special container business is the main driving force for the company's counter-trend growth in the first quarter.
The impact of the epidemic on the company is relatively small, and the growth of medium-and long-term railway special container business can still be expected, which will become an important driving force for the company's performance. Judging from the company's operating results in the first quarter, the impact of the epidemic is relatively small. Looking back, the railway special container business will still support the company's performance growth. at present, the railway special containers operated by the company mainly include all kinds of dry bulk containers, all kinds of tank containers, refrigerated containers, steel coil containers, etc., with a variety of box structures. and in 2019, the company increased R & D expenditure of 2 million yuan for the research and development of new box business. We believe that container multimodal transport will continue to develop rapidly.
Investment advice: the company is relatively less affected by the epidemic and is optimistic about the growth of special box business and the opportunities brought about by railway reform. It is estimated that the EPS from 2020 to 2022 will be 0.38 and 0.42 respectively. The corresponding PE is 12.56X/11.49X/10.68X, maintaining the "overweight" rating.
Risk hint: the development of the epidemic is higher than expected, the public transportation is not as expected, and the freight rate falls sharply.